this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2024
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[–] [email protected] 71 points 4 months ago (13 children)

I really have a hard time deciding if that is the scandal the article makes it out to be (although there is some backpedaling going on). The crucial point is: 8% of the decisions turn out to be wrong or misjudged. The article seems to want us to think that the use of the algorithm is to blame. Yet, is it? Is there evidence that a human would have judged those cases differently? Is there evidence that the algorithm does a worse job than humans? If not, then the article devolves onto blatant fear mongering and the message turns from "algorithm is to blame for deaths" into "algorithm unable to predict the future in 100% of cases", which of course it can't...

[–] [email protected] 23 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

Could a human have judged it better? Maybe not. I think a better question to ask is, "Should anyone be sent back into a violent domestic situation with no additional protection, no matter the calculated risk?" And as someone who has been on the receiving end of that conversation and later narrowly escaped a total-family-annihilation situation, I would say no...no one should be told that, even though they were in a terrifying, life-threatening situation, they will not be provided protection, and no further steps will be taken to keep them from being injured again, or from being killed next time. But even without algorithms, that happens constantly...the only thing the algorithm accomplishes is that the investigator / social worker / etc doesn't have to have any kind of personal connection with the victim, so they don't have to feel some kind of way for giving an innocent person a death sentence because they were just doing what the computer told them to.

Final thought: When you pair this practice with the ongoing conversation around the legality of women seeking divorce without their husband's consent, you have a terrifying and consistently deadly situation.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago (1 children)

the only thing the algorithm accomplishes is that the investigator / social worker / etc doesn’t have to have any kind of personal connection with the victim

This even works for people pulling the trigger. Following orders, sed lex dura lex, et cetera ad infinitum.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

Yep! For all the psych nerds, it's pretty much a direct lift of the Milgram Shock Experiment

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Thank you, this is why I came to the Fediverse from Reddit.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

IMO this place is far more an echo chamber than Reddit. Both places have their share of team based opinions but reddits diversity IMO is better at surfacing it.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago

An algorithm is never to blame, some pencil necked desk jockey decided the criteria to get help that was used to create the algorithm, the blame is entirely on them.

That said, I doubt it would make any difference if a human was in the loop. An algorithm is still al algorithm, even if it's applied by a human. We usually just call that a "policy" though. People have been murdered by the paper sea for decades before we started calling it "algorithms".

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago

Critical thinking spotted, proper authorities have been notified.

We will fix you!

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago (3 children)

It reminds me of the debate around self driving cars. Tesla has a flawed implementation of self driving tech, that's trying to gather all the information it needs through camera inputs vs using multiple sensor types. This doesn't always work, and has led to some questionable crashes where it definitely looks like a human driver could have avoided the crash.

However, even with Tesla's flawed self driving, They're supposed to have far fewer wrecks than humans driving. According to Tesla's safety report, Tesla's in self driving mode average 5-6 million miles per accident vs 1-1.5 million miles for Tesla drivers not using self driving (US average is 500-750k miles per accident).

So a system like this doesn't have to be perfect to do a far better job than people can, but that doesn't mean it won't feel terrible for the unlucky people who things go poorly for.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 4 months ago

Wow Tesla said that Tesla was safe!?!? This changes everything.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 4 months ago

That report fails to take into account that the Cybertruck is already a wreck when it rolls off the assembly line.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Unfortunately, this is bad statistics.

The Teslas in self driving mode tend to be used on main roads, and most accidents per mile happen on the small side streets. People are also much safer where Teslas are driven than the these statistics suggest.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (2 children)

The article is not about how the AI is responsible for the death. It's likely that the woman would have died in the counterfactual.

The question is not "how effective is AI"? The question is should life or death decisions be made by an electrified Oracle at Delphi. You must answer this question before "is AI effective" becomes relevant.

If somebody was adjudicating traffic court with Tarot cards, would you ask: well how accurate are the cards compared to a judge?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Decisions should be made by whomever or whatever is most effective. That's not even a debate. If the tarot cards were right more often than the judge, fire the judge and get me a deck. Because the judge is clearly ineffective.

You can't privilege an approach just because it sounds more reasonable. It also has to BE more reasonable. It's crazy to say "I'm happy being wrong because I'm more comfortable with the process"

The trick of course is to find fair ways to measure effectiveness accurately and make sure it's repeatable. That's a rabbit hole of challenges.

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

Here's another quote further down:

Since 2007, about 0.03 percent of Spain’s 814,000 reported victims of gender violence have been killed after being assessed by VioGén, the ministry said. During that time, repeat attacks have fallen to roughly 15 percent of all gender violence cases from 40 percent, according to government figures.

“If it weren’t for this, we would have more homicides and gender-based violence,” said Juan José López Ossorio, a psychologist who helped create VioGén and works for the Interior Ministry.

So no, not a scandal, it seems it is helping, but perhaps could be better. At least that's my read.

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[–] [email protected] 42 points 4 months ago (3 children)

The police accepted the software’s judgment and Ms. Hemid went home with no further protection.

This is what happens when you rely on your Nintendos, instead of using your damn brains.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 4 months ago (2 children)

And that's why I'm against ALL such things.

Not because they can't be done right and you can't teach people to use them.

But because there's a slippery slope of human nature where people want to offload the burden of decision to a machine, an oracle, a die, a set of bird intestines. The genie is out and they will do that again and again, but in a professional organization, like police, one can make a decision of creating fewer opportunities for such catastrophes.

The rule is that people shouldn't use machines above their brains, as one other commenter says, and they should only use this in a logical OR with their own judgment made earlier, as another commenter says, but the problem is in human nature and I'd rather not introduce this particular point of failure to police, politics, anything juridical and military.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (2 children)
[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

It's from movie Idiocracy from hospital scene. Initial diagnosis.

Here's this part of the scene: https://youtu.be/LXzJR7K0wK0

It's 2505 and the average man from 2005 is now by far the smartest man in the world.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 4 months ago

It's a Doctor's diagnostic desk from the film, "Idiocracy"

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

And that's why I'm against ALL such things.

Absolutely, ACAB

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

Even when given the best and most sophisticated tools and equipment available, police will manage to fuck things up at every opportunity because they're utterly incompetent.

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 4 months ago

The algorithm itself is just a big "whatever". The key issue here is that some assumptive piece of shit decided to conclude, based on partial information, that those women would be safe in the future.

[–] [email protected] 25 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

The way to use these kinds of systems is to have the judge came to an independent decision, then, after that's keyed in, the AI spits out theirs and whichever predicts more danger is then acted on.

Relatedly, the way you have an AI select people and companies to get spot-checked by tax investigators is not to show investigators the AI scores, but mix in AI suspicions among a stream of randomly selected people.

Relatedly, the way you have AI involved in medical diagnoses is not to tell the human doctor results, but suggest additional tests to be made. The "have you ruled out lupus" approach.

And from what I've heard the medical profession actually got that right from the very beginning. They know what priming and bias is. Law enforcement? I fear we'll have to ELI5 them the basics for the next five hundred years.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

I don't think there's any AI involved. The article mentions nothing of the sort, it's at least ~~8~~ 17 years old (according to the article) and the input is 35 yes/no questions, so it's probably just some points assigned for the answers and maybe some simple arithmetic.

Edit: Upon a closer read I discovered the algorithm was much older than I first thought.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Sounds like an expert system then (just judging by the age) which was AI before the whole machine learning craze, in any case you need to take the same kind of care when integrating them into whatever real-world structures there are.

Medicine used them with quite some success problem being they take a long time to develop because humans need to input expert knowledge, and then they get outdated quite quickly.

Back to the system though: 35 questions is not enough for these kinds of questions. And that's not an issue of number of questions, but things like body language and tone of voice not being included.

so it’s probably just some points assigned for the answers and maybe some simple arithmetic.

Why yes, that's all that machine learning is, a bunch of statistics :)

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago

But that doesn't save money and the only reason the capitalists want AI is saving money

[–] [email protected] 22 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I remember years ago when they said the value of our lives would be determined by a panel of people.

Now its by a machine.

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 4 months ago

Advocates: take survivors of abuse seriously.
Society: Let's have computers tell us what to do!

I mean I guess the risk of repeated murder-suicide is pretty low...

[–] [email protected] 18 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Why do we live in a dystopian hellscape

[–] [email protected] 12 points 4 months ago

Capitalism.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 months ago (1 children)

The algorithm:

isSafe = random();

if isSafe >.5 println ("everything is fine\n");

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (1 children)

per the article, it's rather better than that.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I admit to having grossly oversimplified things. Sorry.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Minority Report: the beta test

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Our pigs don't look as good as [generic Hollywood actor]

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Pedantic Mathematician here.

If it failed, then it was a heuristic, rather than an algorithm.

Clearly, that's the most important thing about this post.

You're welcome.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Pretty much anything trying to predict human behavior is a heuristic; people using them as if they've got some kind of certainty is a problem.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

Yes, exactly.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

Why not both? A bad algorithm based on bad heuristics? There are many many algorithms that fail at what they're supposed to do.

As a non-condescending "mathematician", I'm happy to help.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago

In the late 1970s (I was a kid) the computer is always right was a common sarcastic parody of all the people who actually believed it.

We'd discoverin the 1980s it was possible to have missing data, insufficient data or erroneous data.

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