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He's right. The US can't be relied on for the next four years, at minimum. Hell, parts of the apparatus might be turned against European security.
Please, look after yourselves.
And what Trump is likely to destroy in the coming years will take ages to rebuild, assuming it ever is.
We all hope it will be enough to shock the European governments into cooperating for once, but the odds are really stacked against that, even if some are willing.
Hasn't been in the last 8 years. At least.
The world can't keep building around a strong USA.
It's not just about the next 4 years, we can't base our defense on a country we can only rely on for 4 years at a time.
There were already problems with Bush Jr. then Trump once, and now Trump again.
You'd have to be insane to believe this is just a one or two off, and things will get back to normal.
Normalcy regarding NATO ended already with Bush.
The times where USA was the deciding factor in most world policies, because USA was backed up by the majority of the global economy is over.
USA loses just as much as Europe and many other US allies. Trump said our so called friends are our true enemies. Trump believes Canada, UK, EU etc are enemies, and he has said directly that Russia and China are "not so bad". Despite Russia is invading in Europe, and threatening nuclear war, and China is behaving ever more aggressively in the China sea and against Taiwan, and in general against their neighbors.
Yeah.
@Buffalox @PugJesus #natoisdead died today.
I don't think NATO is dead, but NATO allies can't rely on USA, and USA was by far the biggest military force in NATO.
Everything else was mostly built to support American forces, which in case of an article 5 situation is the commander of the NATO forces.
US can’t be relied on for the next four years, at minimum.
Probably Optimistic :(
I don't think the US has been reliable since 2016 at the latest. And honestly after this... I don't think it ever will be again.
Don't be surprised if Trump pulls the US out of NATO and UN. He hates both of those organizations.
I guess this will be the end of NATO. Such a dark future.
I don't think that's it, but I do think it will endure massive strain.
Leaving NATO requires a 2/3th majority in the american congress, which the republicans didn't quite have. However, trump can obviously keep back troops, gear and money. But he can't just leave like the Paris climate deal thingy.
That still seems like the end of NATO to me. No need to leave, just make it disfunctional.
Yes Macron said this back in 2017
literally point number one:
- A Europe that guarantees security in all its aspects
In terms of defence, Europe must have a joint intervention force, a joint defence budget and a joint doctrine for action. We need to encourage the swift creation of a European Defence Fund, permanent structured cooperation, and supplement them with a European intervention initiative that better integrates our armed forces at all stages.
and what has changed since then and what is being implemented?
Any decent EU military needs a common EU foreign policy. Both of those need treaty changes. Also Macron says a lot about Europe, but when he got the opportunity for action tends to fall short. France was in a great position to lead on Ukraine aid, but did not perform that amazingly.
EDIT: EU ammo purchases for Ukraine have been launched and some EU military organizational work as well, such as EU missions in Mali, the Red Sea and some other places. Also some good cooperation such as Germany and Netherlands integrating their armies.
Organisation is actually pretty good at the battalion level, there's plenty of EU Battlegroups integrating neighbouring armies on a deep level -- or at least making them acquainted with each other. Gotta know the MRE exchange rates. And that's not counting stuff that you mentioned, like the Dutch land army being rolled into German C&C or the German/French brigade.
What's lacking are strategic C&C capabilities on the EU level: There's just too few of them, there should be more cooperation on that level (member states have those kinds of capabilities) which is exactly what the "EU army" thing is about, operationally. Although it has to be said that push come to shove, with so many EU members in NATO, everyone would just re-assign everything NATO to the EU should the NATO fall flat. Armies have scrambled into fighting stances from worse positions.
Macron could lead Europe, yes, but first he has to manage to lead France.
Back then, Germany was barely warming up to the idea of a EU military. Now it seems to be a done deal, the European motor is going to churn and Poland seems to want to be part of it.
Poland doesn't want to be the welcome mat again.
Everyone blaming Trump (fuck that guy) is missing the forest for the trees.
Europe should have ceased relying on the United States for security as soon as it substantially recovered from WWII. That it didn't has been a bone of contention since before the collapse of the U.S.S.R.
The US benefited from the slavish dependence of european countries on it, and the good business conditions that came with it. This started to change with the EU and in particular with the introduction of the euro.
I guess that it's time for civilized Europe to become a military powerhouse once again.
Coupled with the fact that a fully armed Europe would have been viewed as a very large threat to the USSR and they might have started some shenanigans before they collapsed.
You're right. Also I can't believe we wasted the 4 years under Biden and now are again caught with our pants down.
This here. It's not a trump issue, it's an issue of not being able to defend your own country. Every country must be able to properly fend for itself and most European countries are not. The entire British army has less long distance missiles than a single american submarine. Germany only has enough ammunition for a single day of combat.
It's just pathetic. We tried to safe money for decades and now it just backfires immensely.
To be fair, the fear of repeating the terrible wars that started in Europe was strong even after European countries recovered. I suppose it didn't look like the greatest idea to let Germany or anyone really to have a super strong army.
Yep. Sorry our politics are so absolutely fucked, everyone. This is the end of Pax Americana. We’re going isolationist, and probably also fascist and theocratic. I’m going to leave the country.
Europe is going to have to get proactive about it's security too. Just defending themselves from Putin and Xi won't be enough.
It was Poland in WW2. It's Ukraine now. Poland remembers.
Yes yes yes!
Fuck Orbath and let's rally around democracy and helping Ukraine!
The EU has to start to replace NATO. That at least means some shared assets like maybe ballistic missile defense, AWACS and similar assets. Combined procurement would also be a great idea. Something like ESA, but with some common EU funding as well.
Every country should have a good defense. But I remember very well how I was flamed for saying we should invest way more into military. "No no no, you have no clue, you're stupid, the world is way too connected, conventional wars don't work anymore etc."
Well. How the turntables.
well, sure, but with Trump going back to the big chair, and working against European interests in favor of Russian and Saudi ones, Europe is in a very bad spot, and is going to have to start making deal with Putin. no one wants to hear this, and I'm sorry for what is about to happen to Ukraine.
And i guess Taiwan will join the mainland soon without the US help china wont wait long
They don't have to make deals with Putin, he can't handle the EU, and America will only help him economically. The EU is the last democratic super block, they need to stand up for those of us that still want democracy to survive. I'm Canadian, we're fucked. Japan just signed a comprehensive security pact with the EU. Obviously they have fascist leaders inside the house as well, but really, NATO is dead, we need them to step up. Here's hoping, with little conviction.
I'm Canadian too and yes we are
Europe is big enough to manage without the us. If we start working together. Starting with building up a defence industry quickly. That won’t be pretty for the US MIC, but that’s Trump’s problem.
ok. show me. see you in two years. good luck wit ze germans.
I’m not saying it will happen. Just that it can be done with enough cooperation. And given the scale of the threat, it may happen
@LaFinlandia well, that's been true since 1949..
it's only the Europeans who are suddenly waking up this. DE have been underperforming NATO slackers since day 1.
Now the chickens come home to roost.
To be fair, it really looked like we were about to achieve world peace like 15 years ago. EU didn't expect russia to start a war etc.. In my region they minimized the military over and over, as it seemed we had no enemies.
@lurch True, but it seems that since 1991 the Poles and Romanians have operated under a very different perspective and understanding of history. Probably because the threat was closer to their front door.
@lurch it really looked like we were about to achieve world peace
A naieve way to read & think about history
Back then, we were thinking about the future, not the past. The Iraq war was coming to an end and all other conflicts seemed to have stalled. None of them involved us anyway and our politicians often offered their help in peace negotiations. It felt, like we were generally respected and had no enemies. Maybe we really had none, but then the fire nation attacked and of course we backed Ukraine and now we have an enemy again.