Welcome to the News community!
Rules:
1. Be civil
Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.
2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.
Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.
3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.
Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.
4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.
Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.
5. Only recent news is allowed.
Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.
6. All posts must be news articles.
No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.
7. No duplicate posts.
If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.
8. Misinformation is prohibited.
Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.
9. No link shorteners.
The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.
10. Don't copy entire article in your post body
For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.
Bears have predicted 11 of the last 2 crashes, this isn't news
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of the economics book, The Black Swan, had a great take on this. I'm paraphrasing but he was like how Economists can go in the news, make a prediction, and if they're wrong, nothing. But if they're right, they become a staple of business news and sell out all of their books. So financially, it's better to make a lot of predictions and hope to win the "I guess right" lottery.
Jesse Livermoore said “the markets act, and the papers look for the explanation.” It was true 100 years ago and it’s true now.
That's like me at the stop light trying to predict when it will change. "1, 2, 3... change".."1, 2, 3........change". "1, 2, 3 change" light changes. I feel smug in my elite ability to predict the change.
You’re very correct. The market is very much a predator and prey relationship, and the justifications afterwards are for the fans at home. I once saw the whole market tilt because one man (Bill Hwang) lost his leveraged multibillion dollar position.
There's an old scam that runs the same way. On a 2 outcome wager like which team wins a game send 500 people prediction team A wins and 500 people team B wins. For the 500 people who got the right one send 250 team C wins and the other 250 team D wins. By the time you're down to ~7 people they all received 7 winning predictions in a row, then you ask them for a bet on a 'sure thing' for the 8th game.
The crazy thing about speculative economy is that by releasing this article, businessinsider might scare some of the investors and so create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Shhh, it's exactly how stock is meant to work for them. Hype bubbles and "adjustments".
I've always thought that about recession predictions. After all, economists measure consumer confidence and define the meaning of the results as
if consumers are optimistic, they will spend more and stimulate the economy, but if they are pessimistic then their spending patterns could lead to an economic slowdown or recession.
It's clearly reasonable to think that publishing panic-inducing articles like "stock market will soon CRASH 49%!!" would decrease consumer confidence.
I think that's pretty much what the foundation series was about, predicting a system changes it.
That's what they are paid to do. Big fund takes a short position, then pays analysts to produce stories to make their short position profitable.
Ahh, Business Insider, the most eager place in the world to let managers talk their book and frame it as news.
lol. Unprofitable companies are getting billion dollar IPOs and we are shocked at this prediction?
I'm curious what makes this man an 'elite' stategist.
He has slightly better weapons and armor but if you do manage to take him down he does have more loot as well.
I feel like I should gauge people based on this system more often. I'm pretty sure I'm just a commoner with trash loot though
That means you got nothing to lose buddy. High five!
maybe he was a beloved space exploration game released in 1985?
Hah!
I could also fart hard enough to reach orbit. I probably won’t… but I could.
I'm not going to do the math, but I'm pretty sure you can't. The forces required would probably destroy your body before you left the ground.
He never said he'd reach orbit alive or in 1 piece
Gonna keep contributing monthly like always.
Dollar cost averaging baby!
pushes up glasses ACSHUALLY. Ok, JK.
But for real, DCA usually implies one has a choice. "Do I lump sum this or DCA?" In this case, I don't have a lump sum, I just add money from my paycheck every month.
If I did have a lump sum to put into the market, I would not DCA since DCA does worse ~66% of the time. Most of the time, one would be better off putting the entire sum into the market all at once.
We’ve been due for a recession since 2020–the drastic pullback for several months at the onset of COVID was hardly a “recession,” more like a blip. I’ve finally stopped saying it’s imminently going to happen, which maybe means it’s going to happen now.
It's bad economics to dismiss a recession as if it didn't happen just because it wasn't as severe as you would like. Many recessions are mild and little more than a "blip", that's completely normal and ignoring them will only lead you to faulty conclusions about what is actually going on with the economy.
My comment was mostly intended as a joke (like me being bullish is going to make the market move in the other direction), but I do think that what happened in 2020 was artificially can-kicked down the road by unprecedented government intervention in the market. So it’s less of a “severe as I’d like” scenario and more of a “curtailed by massive global intervention in the economy.” Maybe that staved it off forever and we will have a soft landing? Possible, but I don’t think so.
This "elite strategist" is welcome to short the S&P 500 if he's so confident and not just trying to get attention. The net of all people with money in the stock market disagree with him so he could make some good money if he's right.
Curious, isn't it, that recession talk is coming back right when an election is heating up...
Predictable
We've been pumping too much money into the economy. Where do you think most of it ends up? Not in the pockets of working people.
Not "the economy", just a few select large corporations and the financial industry. It's not like your uncle's bakery is exploding right now.
Still waiting for that padded recession the news mentioned a month ago. Padded for the rich investor assholes, but not for the average American.
AI and related companies are here to stay for the most part. Overvalued in the short term but not in the long term, as again, this stuff is going to stay.
They're not nearly making the money that is being put in yet. It's a giant bubble for now.
The internet was here to stay as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble
What AI companies are in the S&P500?
Google? Amd? nvidia?
Be a great time to buy then.