There are going to be fun times in Asia as China is not going to be happy with this.
But congrats Taiwan! This is a great outcome on the path to independence.
this post was submitted on 13 Jan 2024
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This is a great outcome on the path to independence.
It's been 5 years since I lived in Taiwan, but I don't think that's the current path.
Surveys consistently show majority support for maintaining the status quo, vs either independence or reunification. Which makes sense - the status quo is independence, but Taiwanese people can still work on the mainland and no one's invading.
Not declaring independence is safest for Taiwan and probably the world, and even pro-independence people I spoke to were usually aware of that.
Status quo is the only non-horrifying option at the moment. A diplomatic path to independence is not currently in the cards.
China is a paper tiger. Their nukes are full of water. The latest reports show even more corruption in their MIC than Russia has going on.
Even if their military is a cesspool of corruption and incompetence that lacks the real-world capacity to invade a wet paper sack (something that I wouldn't take for granted even if the rumors and reports about it are true, given the sheer volume of men and materiel China has to throw at an enemy nation regardless of quality), China at war with Taiwan would create a global economic crisis, between shipping disruptions in the Pacific and the knock-on effects of isolating China economically in retaliation.
Really, the best thing for everyone would be for Xi exit stage left somehow and be replaced by someone with less imperialistic ambition, but for the moment he seems fairly secure in power, which is why we've seen Western nations making efforts to decouple their economies from China, and more overtly signal their support for Taiwanese independence.
Either that, or focus on the oblast that includes Vladivostok. That oblast used to be called either Outer or Northern Manchuria. It still has a large Han population, and Russia only took it from them a little more than 100 years ago. This would also give China access to the Sea of Okhotsk, and another northern port.
Literally everyone is hoping that this is something we won't have to deal with in our lifetimes.
I guess the CCPs threats didn't work again. I wonder what they'll try next time?
Guess trying to bully Taiwan into electing "their guy" kinda backfired on Daddy Xi.
Who knew that blunt-force intimidation doesn't work?
People probably still remember Hong Kong.
They'll issue a final warning
I understood that reference.
So does Windows, but you know you keep pressing "remind me in 14 days" and never actually updating.
Sad part is, it sometimes decides to update on it's own.
Threats. But scarier. Or at least they will try to be scarier.
For some context, in terms of domestic politics, the DPP is a relatively leftist party, or at the very least centre-left. The KMT is classic conservatism, and the TPP is...weird. "Populist" is probably the best description.
DPP is pro-independence, while KMT is historically pro-unification. Lately, KMT has softened on that a lot, and is instead more in favour of maintaining the status quo while warming diplomatic and trade relations with China. The KMT candidate came from the less-pro-China wing of his party.
It's worth noting that even the DPP isn't calling for an announcement of independence. The former President had said that such wasn't necessary, because Taiwan is already functionally independent. Plus, making an official announcement would unnecessarily antagonise China. One of the most common critiques of the DPP, in fact (even from people who are in principle pro-independence) is that DPP has already been unnecessarily provocative towards China. They're worried this may increase the likelihood of China making more serious aggressive moves in the future.
The Taiwanese Presidential elections run on First Past the Post. In other words, it's not really democracy. It's a farce, just like American elections. However unlike American elections, there are three very significant candidates in this election. The winner has, as a result, achieved just 40% of the vote. Apparently TPP voters would almost certainly have preferred KMT over DPP (at a ratio my source confidently asserts would be 3:1), meaning that in a better electoral system, KMT would have won: roughly 54% to 46% two-candidate-preferred.
I've not read the linked article (because eww MSN), but this comes from three main sources. One is the Wikipedia page for each party. A second is a video about this election entitled "How Will China React to Taiwan's Election?" (it should be on YouTube, but I watched on Nebula). The third and most important is word-of-mouth from a couple of very good friends of mine who are Taiwanese and who, despite being anti-CCP, are extremely upset at this outcome.
Personally, unlike my friends, if I were Taiwanese, I suspect I'd have voted DPP. Nevertheless, this should not be considered a win for democracy. It's a win by my preferred party that would not have been a win under a not-shit voting system.
It's worth noting that even the DPP isn't calling for an announcement of independence.
Because uncle Sam doesn’t like that. The last president who tried to make things go that way soured US - Taiwan relationship quite badly. Tsai and the DPP now play it safe by maintaining the status quo - don’t say the bad word that starts with i, and everybody’s happy, maybe except China.
Because uncle Sam doesn’t like that.
Last I saw the surveys, the majority of Taiwanese people didn't like it either.
Heck, my experience of talking to pro-independence folks was that the majority of them didn't want an announcement of independence either. Granted that was like 5 years ago.
Probably still is. The consequences didn't change, heck, they may be even more sever than 5 years ago
And I, at least, agree with Uncle Sam there. Do we really want WWIII over a stupid symbolic declaration?
That's an aspect of it for sure, but I don't think it's necessary. Taiwan has enough domestic and cross-strait reasons not to want to formally declare independence without America.
This should illustrate to those more "China friendly/West antagonistic" that third party voting is a terrible decision. As long as there's a FPTP system, you need to coalesce into two major parties. A third party just guarantees the plurality, whom the majority dislike, will win.
It makes me really glad to live in a country where:
- We don't have a president to begin with. I think presidential systems are fundamentally more flawed than parliamentary systems where there's no One Person who inherently controls significantly more power.
- Our legislature is voted using IRV (lower house) and STV (upper house).
And yet it still boils down to 2 right wing parties and I’m forced to vote Labor because I can’t not vote for those arsholes because the only other choice is Liberal which is even more right wing.
Come to Greensland! My federal and state members are both Greens, and there's a very good chance that in just over 2 months, the local councillor where I live will be too.
There's certainly puts and takes to a presidency. There's an advantage to having one decision maker in times of crisis.
There's an advantage to having one decision maker in times of crisis.
Not really, because a Prime Minister in a Parliamentary system has the relevant powers a president would.
lol calling KMT "classic conservative" is really charitable for a fascist party
Is that good? The article gives no context for the results.
Is that good? The article gives no context for the results.
For context here another article by France24
And they state:
" Labelled a separatist by Beijing, the winner in Taiwan’s presidential race has promised to stick to Tsai’s policy of maintaining the status quo, which avoids open declarations of independence while rejecting China’s sovereignty claims. "
It’s the pro-Independence democracy party.
If that’s good or not is subjective. I personally think it’s good.
To give more perspective, there were 3 choices in the election, move towards being reunited under China, status quo, and move towards gaining independence. So this sends a clear sign of where the population want to continue going despite Chinas recent threats.
Isn't DPP pro status quo? Ideologically they're pro-independence, but they'd never risk angering the PRC over it.
Status quo = de facto independence. Is the current position of the ruling DPP.
For me it’s more like KMT -> unification, TPP -> ????(Ko is purposefully vague about this) and DPP -> states quo but further distance from China
Congrats guys!
Whoa! How! How did he win? That's nuts. Wow. Congratulations