3 of those 8 were shot down by patriot missiles. I like speculating too, but I would think photos of F16s operating in Ukraine would leak pretty quickly just from excited civilians or air force crew
this post was submitted on 27 Dec 2023
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Was thinking "what speculation"? An F-16 is going to draw a lot of attention very very quickly. Nobody is speculating because either they have them or they don't and it's not much of a secret.
Those mofos are loud, too. No secret when they're overhead, either.
You can't even have your mobik bro suck your dick behind a bombed out building without someone filming you both getting blown up. I suspect we would know fairly quickly if they had them up and running. Not saying it's not possible but I'd be very impressed if they did and we had not seen them on the internet by now.
We gave them prototype f16’s with the new fancy invisibility paint! The paint makes them sooo stealthy, that they can’t be seen!
Seeing that....uh....Special Military Operation being performed on the battlefield in the middle of a war was eye-opening, to say the least.
It's now preserved for all human history as well. What a fucked up time-line we are on.
There's also the one the Russians shot down themselves.
For the incident with 3 jets shot down on one day, new Patriot or SAMP-T makes more sense
They probably did the shooting down part, but something has changed. Russian pilots know how low they need to fly and how far away they need to be from the front to be able to launch 2000lb glide bombs at Ukrainian front line positions without being picked up by ground-based radar. And that has been stalling their offensive operations for a long while now. Ukraine didn't extend their air defence by moving it forward. They must have done it by putting something in the air with a radar that can integrate with Western air defence systems. Being in the air instead of on the ground allows radar to see much further towards the horizon and suddenly the air defence can see into the dead area that starts about 30-40km behind enemy lines that the Russian planes have been operating in. This was one of the speculated roles of the F16s in Ukraine, and based on the reports of a sudden and precipitous drop in Russian glide bombing activity at the front due to their planes now being in missile range before they can attack, it wouldn't surprise me if this is what has happened.
No. Ukraine already has access to AWACS which are flying nearby - radars on planes aren't the issue. Those three planes were probably a result of a patriot trap. Patriot has a large range, but turning on the radar means the people you are targetting know to turn back. So Ukraine most likely had shorter range radars right at the frontline, that saw the planes approach from a large distance. To drop the glidebombs and not risk being shot down, they were dropping them 50kms from the frontline. To do that, you need to be very high up - thus visible to everyone. Previously Ukraine knew about those bombers (via the shittier radars), but didn't have a way of shooting at them down without moving the patriot battery away from a city it was protecting.
So the way that most likely happened, was Ukrainians kept the patriot radar off. The planes were lit up on the short range radar they always had. When they were in their drop zone, they turned on the patriot radar and fired when the jets were deep into its firing range and unable to easily turn back and escape.
Ukraine didn't extend their air defence by moving it forward
Well, how do you know. They did exactly that earlier with Patriot battery
From my understanding based on what I have read about the situation with the attacks on front line positions, they would need to move it further towards the enemy by about 10km past their lines to be able to pick up a plane flying just above the treetops to see it when it is within glide bomb launch range. I guess they could have given that a shot, but I am somewhat dubious.
Glide bombs glide on initial inertia. They have to be dropped from the highest possible point at around 15 k meters to get them to fly the furthest. Patriot system can detect them way before that.
Russia has been using low altitude approach and low altitude release with a quick pull up to lob the glide bombs in. The bombs have minimal range and accuracy, so Russia has just been throwing large bombs, and more recently, cluster bombs, to try their luck at hitting and damaging front line infantry positions. What they are doing works, is more effective than their artillery at killing Ukrainians, and has been going on for almost a year now with little to no reprisal from air defence. They aren't going anywhere near 15km high, or forget Patriots, the Buks and S300s that Ukraine is comfortable keeping near enemy lines would hand them their asses.
Probability of F22 sniping Su34s over Zaporozhzhia might be low, but never zero
The F-16s they a getting are designed more for bombing and not for air superiority.
Is that true? I thought they were either built for multirole or air superiority/intercepting? I didn't think any of the variants were built as attackers.
The primary mission will likely be intercepting cruise missiles. The F-16C Block 50 that Ukraine is getting was the late 80s and early 90s model. The F-16s the United States flies are the Block 70. The aircraft includes a Honeywell H-423 Ring Laser Gyro Inertial Navigation System (RLG INS) for rapid in-flight alignment; GPS receiver; Data Transfer Cartridge with a larger capacity (128KB) to accommodate the planned avionics growth; Improved Data Modem for faster data transmission; AN/ALR-56M advanced RWR; AN/ALE-47 threat adaptive countermeasure system; digital terrain system data transfer cartridge; cockpit compatible with night vision systems; advanced IFF interrogator; Upgraded Programmable Display Generator (UPDG); MIL-STD-1760 data bus for programming new-generation PGMs; Horizontal Situation Display (HSD) for increased situational awareness and tactical flexibility on all missions.
The Block 50 also carries the Westinghouse AN/APG-68 V(5) radar, which offers longer-range detection against air targets and higher reliability. The radar has a programmable signal processor employing high-speed integrated circuit (VHSIC) technology. The latest batches of Block 50/52 carry the same radar, but versions V(7) and V(8) offer even greater-performance envelopes. The VHF/FM antenna is now incorporated into the leading edge of the vertical fin and has an extended operating distance. The cockpit includes two monochrome MFDs and a FOV HUD.
The Block 50s can fire the AIM-120 AMRAAM, the AGM-65G Maverick missile, and the PGU-28/B 20mm cannon round. The Block 50 can carry JDAM munition, the AGM-154A/B JSOW, and is the first F-16 version to integrate the AGM-84 Harpoon antishipping missile. The aircraft can launch the Harpoon in line-of-sight, bearing-only, and range/bearing modes. The addition of the Harpoon gives the F-16 a significant standoff range anti-shipping capability, especially when combined with optional 600-gallon fuel tanks.
It will go a long way at hurting Russia's ability to conduct it's war, but the aircraft alone will not win the war. It won't be a match for air-to-air in most engagements and shouldn't be used in that role. SAMs do a better job keeping the Russian air force grounded.
Thanks! The Internet makes it a lot harder than you'd think to find out which Block variant Ukraine is getting.
I asked ChatGPT to ELI5 this and it did a good job:
""" Okay, imagine you have a toy plane, like a really cool one. So, there's this country called Ukraine, and they're going to get a special kind of toy plane called the F-16C Block 50. This plane is really good at stopping bad flying things, like missiles. The toy plane that the United States has is a newer version, like a fancier model, called the Block 70.
Now, the Block 50 toy plane from Ukraine has some special things inside it. It has a GPS to know where it is, kind of like when you use a map to find your way. It also has a radar to see far away and some other cool gadgets. This toy plane is like a superhero because it can shoot special missiles and even has a big cannon to protect Ukraine.
But, you know what? Just having this toy plane doesn't mean Ukraine will win the fight against another country called Russia. The toy plane is good for stopping missiles, but it might not be the best at fighting other planes in the sky. There are other things called SAMs that are better at keeping Russian planes on the ground.
So, the toy plane is like a strong helper, but there are many other things needed to win the big fight. It's a bit like having a superhero toy, but you also need a team of superheroes and a good plan to save the day. """
But why is it a toy?
I like your funny words magic man
Deutchlender why?
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Western-provided F-16 fighter jets could already be in Ukraine, Newsweek has been told, after Kyiv claimed a host of high-profile victories against Russian assets in the air and in the sea.
Kyiv had clamored for the jets, which would boost Ukraine's ability to contest Russia's dominance in the skies and launch more strikes on key Russian targets.
On December 5, the Ukrainian military said it had shot down a Russian jet around Snake Island, a Black Sea outpost around 30 miles from Ukraine's coastline close to Romania.
Russian-aligned or anti-Ukrainian Telegram channels have since speculated that an F-16 was used to fire the cruise missiles at the Russian vessel, and what threat the jets in Ukraine's hands could pose to the Kremlin.
"I hope the West has learned NOT to announce new weapons systems, as was done for the most part for the first 20 months of the war," said Daniel Rice, former special adviser to Ukraine's lead commander, General Valery Zaluzhny.
On December 22, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Dutch government was starting preparations to deliver an initial batch of 18 F-16 jets for delivery to Ukraine.
The original article contains 692 words, the summary contains 189 words. Saved 73%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
Ukraine has just deployed new long range missiles to mitigate Russian glide bomb attacks.
In that video you link, he speculates that the most logical explanation is f16s joining the battlefield
Russia is a big country, I'm sure the missing jets will turn up somewhere eventually. I'd check the couch cushions first.