567
Team Trump Mulling Deploying Military to Streets on Day 1 if Elected: Report
(www.thedailybeast.com)
this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2023
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politics
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He won't win.
As an outsider looking in I'm not so confident
He didn't win the popular vote the last 2 times, he just lost more last time.
Unfortunately the game isn't to win the popular vote, it's to win the electoral vote. You can rack up all the votes in California and New York, it's only like 6 states that really matter to the outcome. And the Democrats aren't exactly trying their best to endear themselves to voters in a state like Michigan (not even paying lip service to doing anything to protect civilians in Gaza, not prosecuting the people responsible for the Flint Water Crisis and even accepting their endorsement, constantly claiming the economy is great while people are still struggling, ...).
Those people might not vote Trump, but they'll stay home or vote third party.
Which in itself is a vote for Trump. I wish we were a society where voting for your personal choice for most ideal candidate was a viable option - but it is not. Protesting a vote over this fact is small-minded and destructive. I am sorry if you feel like you have to pick between two evils... might I suggest comparing how evil they are.
Don't tell me, I'm not the one voting/not voting in swing states. I'm just saying that Biden needs the Muslim vote in swing states, and they're seeing democrats sending billions to Israel to effectively conduct a genocide. I don't think they see that as a 'lesser of two evils', especially if there's some Republicans making noises about stopping aid on budgetary grounds.
Trump lost Michigan in 2020 and then in 2022 Gretchen Whitmer (D) won a second term as Governor. Also in 2022, both the Michigan State Legislature and Michigan State Senate flipped to Democratic majorities for the first time in over a decade. I don't know how things will go in 2024, but I don't think flying the Trump banner will find any significant wins in Michigan.
I agree that more needs to be done regarding the civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, but our hands are a pretty tied because of our obligations in the US treaty with Israel. Keeping those promises makes helping the Palestinian people very difficult, but breaking that treaty would likely destabilize the balance of power there and make things worse not better for everyone in the region. US Secretary of State Blinken has already strongly urged Israel to avoid civilian casualties. If Governor Whitmer said anything on the matter it would probably be seen as speaking out of turn.
Not technically true. There are only like 6 states that are big enough to have a large impact and not predictable enough to not already know who they'll vote for.
CA is nearly 20% of the needed electoral votes by itself, it's just that absolutely everyone knows those are going to go to the Democrats so no one really fights over them. It's a waste of resources for Dems to defend them or GOP to try to convert them because they aren't going to budge.
If CA or NY went red, or even came meaningfully close to going red, they would be the most important state in the election.
Imagine if the democratic states kick him off the ballot. He could get zero votes from 1/3 of the states in the country and still win.
Did you know you can with the presidency with something like 30% of the vote? Just win states by one vote each in reverse order of population until you get to 270 electoral votes.
A couple of these are the battle ground states though.
I actually don't like this possibility. If something transpires where ALL states disqualify him from the ballot, fine. But if only blue states do, that's just going to feed a resurgence of "the election was stolen from him" and I don't see that going well either.
It's better than a Trump win in the short term, but for the next 50 years we'll have to hear about how the blue states "stole" an election from Republicans, and they'll use it to justify bullshit of one sort or another.
STOP trying to get ahead of their whining idiocy. They will be saying this no matter what. Even if he wins...
That's a funny way to say "stop worrying about giving fuel to the next wannabe that will rise up in Trump's stead"
This problem didn't end when Biden won in 2020, and it won't end when Trump loses in 2024.
If a by the books court proceeding can disqualify him from the ballot in (checks notes) "the democratic states", then by the books court proceedings should get him off the ballot in at least some red states too.
It would be very myopic to support an outcome where only the blue stats take him off the ballot. It would be taken by the maga crowd (and sympathizers) of "proof" of what he was saying all along.
My point was intended much more generally here.
You see it everyday where people are saying things like if we do X, Y, or Z, the maga crowd will do some horrible thing.
My point was that it doesn't matter if you do those things. The horrible shit is still coming. Might as well do the things that might help because no matter what the maga idiots are going to maga.
Ah - on that we can agree!
The point is that they are a large group of abusers who only seek power and will never be happy unless they get a separate society of their own or take over this one.
The only way to definitively resolve the conflict is warfare at this point. The U.S. is irrevocably broken and always has been.
If he is convicted in Georgia, I think it is unlikely that he will be on the ballot there.
Is the trial going to get to the potential conviction stage by the time the election comes around though? I'm not up to date with the timeline of that case
Great. Should anyone bring that up, there's the little matter of the election that was stolen from Gore.
Yes, but all we do is grumble about that. MAGA has shown they will take illegal measures even with zero evidence. This would certainly look like actual evidence to them.
As I said in another reply -
If a by the books court proceeding can disqualify him from the ballot in (checks notes) "the democratic states", then by the books court proceedings should get him off the ballot in at least some red states too.
It would be very myopic to support an outcome where only the blue stats take him off the ballot. It would be taken by the maga crowd (and sympathizers) of "proof" of what he was saying all along.
I've never really understood why it's necessary to take into account how these people may react. The law is the law, if it's enforced in blue states and red ones decide to forego their responsibilities, fine.
Fuck 'em.
They're going to whine about something anyway and they don't much care if what they're whining about has any basis in reality.
Well for one, it would be great if we could unify the country again without a civil war.
Sure, I'm all for that. I'm not in favor of indulging the fantasies of a bunch of angry seditious morons though.
And recent polls have him gaining literally 10 points on basically every demographic versus 2020. How? I have no fucking idea. But he's up in swing states because black men and Latinos and white people under 35 have apparently decided that Trump is fine all of a sudden.
Also some young folks: My vote doesn't matter, so why vote?
Hnnngggghhhh I'm trying not to strangle them collectively.
Biden isn't doing so well that is how. You can deflect blame all you want but when nearly everyone is poorer than they were in 2020, when Eastern Europe and the middle east is on fire, when abortion is now illegal in most of the country, when student loan debt and living expenses promise a disaster, when pretty much everything that was broken 3 years ago is still broken the polls will reflect that.
If he could fix one major problem.
I've heard that one before. Didn't turn out well.
I'm a Brit. In 2016, my best friend (who's not a betting man) walked into a betting shop and placed a £50 accumulator on Clinton winning the US election and the UK voting to Remain in the EU.
Dead certs, right?
I always bet for bad news that way I still get something.
I pray to the gods you're true
I said that the first time around. I'm hoping it remains true though.