this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
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Trump has stated he will cut American aid to Ukraine, which makes a majority of total aid. Recently Zelensky stated that if Ukraine's only hope for sovereignty is its own nuclear arsenal, they will build it.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Yep.

The US won’t be there for them anymore once trump takes the reins.

Ukraine, and potentially anyone in NATO as well, will have to fend for themselves.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 days ago

Nuclear programs need a lot more leadtime than that, that's why if Biden had balls he'd give them some of ours before it's too late

[–] [email protected] 25 points 3 days ago (1 children)

There's really no question that any nation that wants actual security should have a nuclear weapon. It's one of the only things that keeps you safe. This has been proven time and time again. Treaties are all just paper that can be ripped up at a moment's notice and disregarded as is needed. Nuclear weapons are the only thing that actually protects sovereignty.

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[–] [email protected] 107 points 4 days ago (4 children)

The irony is that Ukraine had "the bomb", but the US and its allies promised to protect them if they gave it up. Oops.

[–] [email protected] 33 points 4 days ago (9 children)

Since I see this claim constantly: where in the Budapest memorandum did they promise protection?

Looking at the Wikipedia summary nowhere does anyone give security assurances similar to NATO article 5 or the even stronger worded mutual defense clause article 42 TEU of the EU. The closest it comes to is in the fourth point, but that is only in the case of nuclear weapons being used. Which obviously hasn't happened yet. Beyond that it is just a promise not to attack, which Russia has broken, but every other singator has kept. And as far as I can see it does not contain anything that compells others to act on someone else's breach.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

"A resolution passed by the Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, on Nov. 18, 1993, attached conditions to its ratification of START that Russia and the United States deemed unacceptable. Those stated that Ukraine would only dismantle 36 percent of its delivery vehicles and 42 percent of its warheads; all others would remain under Ukrainian custody. Moreover, the resolution made those reductions contingent upon assurances from Russia and the United States to never use nuclear weapons against Ukraine (referred to as “security assurances”), along with foreign aid to pay for dismantlement.

In response, the Clinton and Yeltsin administrations intensified negotiations with Kyiv, eventually producing the Trilateral Statement, which was signed on Jan. 14, 1994. This agreement placated Ukrainian concerns by allowing Ukraine to cooperate in the transfer of the weapons to Russia, which would take place over a maximum period of seven years. The agreement further called for the transferred warheads to be dismantled and the highly enriched uranium they contained to be downblended into low-enriched uranium. Some of that material would then be transferred back to Ukraine for use as nuclear reactor fuel. Meanwhile, the United States would give Ukraine economic and technical aid to cover its dismantlement costs. Finally, the United States and Russia responded to Ukraine’s security concerns by agreeing to provide security assurances upon its NPT accession.

In turn, the Rada ratified START, implicitly endorsing the Trilateral Statement. However, it did not submit its instrument of accession to the NPT until Dec. 5, 1994, when Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States provided security assurances to Ukraine. That decision by the Rada met the final condition for Russia’s ratification of START and therefore subsequently brought that treaty into force.

For more information, see Ukraine, Nuclear Weapons and Security Assurances at a Glance."

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/lisbon-protocol-glance

:::

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 days ago

That's my understanding. Furthermore, they had the nuclear weapons of the soviet union. Even if they could maintain them at the time, without much of the infrastructure that the soviet Union had, I think legally they were Moscow's. Moscow held the metaphorical button, if not the physical one. Similar to US nuclear weapons in Germany aren't controlled by Berlin.

That being said, I think this whole war has lead to a situation where nuclear armament is very appealing, not just to Kyiv but to many of the similar states looking on. It is again, for world peace we need less nukes in the world, for Ukraine's sovereign safety, they need (more) nukes.

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

The US and Russia. Ya know, the Russia that’s murdering, raping, and torturing Ukrainians and claiming they shouldn’t exist like genocide

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 days ago

It was even the same fucker personally, who signed it and then rationalized the war, lavrov.

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[–] [email protected] 85 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

YES

The US and Russia promised to defend Ukraine if it surrendered its nukes. Russia is currently destroying Ukraine, and trump will let them so it’s time since that agreement was now worthless

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 days ago (1 children)

It will surely help significantly preventing a tactical nuclear strike from russia, though it won't end the war. It is an absolute last resort trigger. Ukraine will be annihilated after they use it (Russia has way more nuklear weapons).

So somewhat good for them and OK to do so, though no solution and no substitution for western military aid.

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago

If they get used it is obviously really going to be a bad time for all but one thing in their favour is that the prevailing wind goes from west to east.

[–] [email protected] 33 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Yes. Yes. Yes. DO IT NOW! Buy the equipment and technology from whoever they can. Even if they do it illegally. Countries that do not have nukes are subjects to those that do.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 4 days ago

Buy the technology? They built the nukes of the past. Pretty sure they can just dust off some old plans.

[–] [email protected] 46 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (2 children)

I think nuclear deterant is the only thing that has a chance of working for countries that aren't military super powers, and even military super powers have them for a reason. And a country having to rely on benevolence of other countries leaves too many things to chance for nations that wish to be sovereign.

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[–] [email protected] 36 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (2 children)

My sympathy for Ukraine says they should.

My survival instincts as an American would say they shouldn't because then Russia get big mad and nuke us. I don't enjoy radiation, so my survival brain is saying they shouldn't.

But my suicidal brain after seeing the result of the US presidential election says: Fuck it, let them do whatever, hell we can even gift some to them. Climate is fucked anyways. Lets pretend this is a sandbox game and see what happens. What's the worst that can happen, die? Hehe I've been dying inside and November 5 just cut off my life support.

So it depends which alter ego you ask. Ye know, like the angel and demon on your shoulders.

Edit: holy shit its 2AM and I'm wasting time on Lemmy. that just shows how dead on the inside i am... cant sleep, fucking election anxiety.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Fighting global warming with... nuclear winter.
🤔

[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 days ago (2 children)
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[–] [email protected] 11 points 3 days ago

wow Putin's bitch stopping aid to Ukraine? never could've seen this coming.

no kidding though, it took a while but Russia finally did it. they are the superpower now. good news, Europe!

[–] [email protected] 17 points 4 days ago (2 children)

They literally had the bomb and got rid of them all.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 days ago (2 children)

I think you are missing something important. Oh yeah, they gave their nuclear arms back to Russia for peace. Who would have thought their brothers and sisters would betray them, after all they are practically the same people.

This is what makes the whole thing just fucking crazy. It would be like if Puerto Rico voted to be an independent nation and signed a peace treaty with the US. Then less then a couple decades goes by and the US starts attacking them when there are more Puerto Rican's in the US than in Puerto Rico. It does not make any sense.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Your analogy doesn’t work because Trump people hate latinos and it absolutely would make sense for a Trump/GOP controlled USA to go back on an agreement like that.

Hell they’d probably even start using PR for nuclear testing again if the fallout would blow over other Latin countries. After all, it’s just “an island full of garbage in the ocean.”

/s (I knew what you meant I just hate all of it)

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 3 days ago (3 children)

Fuck yeah, and I hope they've been doing it in secret for a while now.

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[–] [email protected] 20 points 4 days ago

Ukraine is fighting two nuclear armed states... But nahh bro, Ukraine doesn't need nukes 🤡

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Sadly, they don't have enough time to build a defense. Trump is going to put them out for slaughter.

Numerous other entities are at high risk in the immediate future, eg: Palestinians, Taiwan, Japanese islands... etc.

Trump and Repugnants are not just the end of the U.S., but, also the World as we know it.

I wish y'all the best and I apologize for the ensuing insanity.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 days ago

You’re absolutely correct and I hate it. Good luck with the horrors ahead.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 4 days ago (4 children)

Everyone in this thread is talking like they could. Even if the country wasn't mired in a war of attrition, the process of building it takes time, expertise, money, and materials. They only have some of those. And not any money.

[–] [email protected] 32 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

It would take them only a few months. Ukraine is filled with Soviet nuclear technology and Soviet nuclear engineers. They have nuclear reactors. Ukraine is richer than North Korea, and they have their own uranium mines. North Korea spent a couple billion on their nukes, but Ukraine's military budget is $82B a year, so they could easily surpass North Korea.

Geopolitics experts agree that Ukraine could build a nuke if they wanted to. The issue is that the west definitely would not want to see a world where countries threatened by Russia turn to nuclear proliferation.

Here's a video from a Danish military analyst talking about the decisions that have to be made on how to secure Ukraine after the war:

https://youtu.be/aTiunvocl5c

It's important to note, Ukraine is willing to freeze the front line now in return for security guarantees. But If the US or the EU don't step up to end the war soon, Ukrainian nuclear engineers will.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (8 children)

That was an interesting watch, but he doesn't put a clear timeline on how long it would take. I found this article that notes that:

The Prydniprovsky Chemical Plant in the city of Kamianske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast processed uranium ore for the Soviet nuclear program, preparing yellowcake, an intermediate step in the processing of uranium ore.

It goes on to interview a couple of engineer about what they could be expected to produce, by when, and with what level of discresion:

Robert Kelley, an engineer with over 35 years of experience in the U.S. Department of Energy's nuclear weapons complex, said that it would be possible for Ukraine to create a primitive uranium fission bomb within five years.

"It's a fairly simple thing to do in the 21st century," he told the Kyiv Independent.

It would be much more difficult for Ukraine to build a plutonium fission bomb, and it would be harder to hide, Kelley argued. It would take five to 10 years to build a plutonium reactor, he added.

In contrast with a fission bomb, a "hydrogen bomb would be incredibly complicated," Kelley said. "No way in the world would (Ukraine) be able to create it," he added.

Kelley also said that Ukraine might be able to create a crude nucleardevice without assistance from other countries. For a more complex nuclear weapon, it would have to buy technology abroad, he added.

A Russian nuclear expert and a Ukrainian nuclear expert both confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine is capable of producing a nuclear bomb, adding that it would likely take years. The Russian expert was speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals, and the Ukrainian expert was not authorized to talk to the press about the issue.

"Ukraine would certainly have the knowhow and resources to become a nuclear weapons state if it made the political decision to do so," Lavikainen said. "The technology required is not out of reach for many countries, and certainly not for Ukraine since it housed crucial elements of the Soviet nuclear weapons complex when it was still part of the USSR."

"Ukraine could develop both nuclear warheads and carrier vehicles since it possesses the necessary military industry, uranium deposits, and nuclearenergy sector," Lavikainen continued.

Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, was more cautious, saying that creating a nuclear bomb "is not impossible" for Ukraine. But, it "will take years, a lot of money, and most likely external support, at least on the equipment side."

"Ukraine does not have the industrial capacity to manufacture and maintain a nuclear arsenal; it does not have fissile materials, enrichment capacity, plutonium production, most of the elements that go into a nuclear weapon capability," he added.

Liviu Horovitz, a nuclear deterrence specialist at theGerman Institute for International and Security Affairs, also said that Ukraine faces challenges if it decides to create a nuclear bomb.

"Ukraine surely has the scientific prerequisites for a nuclear weapons program," but "acquiring the necessary fissile materials is neither cheap nor fast nor very easy to do in secret," he added.

The nuclear weapons expert who spoke on condition of anonymity said that the most primitive nuclear bomb program focused on uranium centrifuges could cost around $100 million. A plutonium bomb program would cost around $1 billion, he added.

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[–] [email protected] 12 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Do it. Promises from super powers are worthless. Only power itself matters. And all the other countries are aware of it too now.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 days ago

Obviously, yes. That’s the only guarantee that nations have not to be fucked with.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (3 children)

If they’re allowed to do it, so will others who have signed NPT, like Iran. To be fair, Russia seems to have violated the Budapest Memorandum so Ukraine should at least be allowed to have nuclear weapons, by maybe not develop their own.

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