this post was submitted on 22 Sep 2024
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The last time I met Evgenia Kara-Murza, it was a grim day in early March. The timing couldn’t have been worse. As we spoke, Alexei Navalny’s coffin was being lowered into the frozen ground in a Moscow cemetery. Meanwhile Evgenia’s husband, Vladimir Kara-Murza, was still incarcerated in a Siberian prison cell almost identical to the one in the Arctic Circle in which Navalny had been found dead, presumed murdered.

The prospects were so grim and the news from Russia and Ukraine so unrelentingly depressing, it feels almost unimaginably miraculous six months later to see Evgenia walk into the lobby of a London hotel, this time with Vladimir right next to her. Six weeks ago, he was in a Siberian gulag. Today, he’s a free man on a trip to London with his wife and their youngest son, nine-year-old Daniel, the result of the largest prisoner exchange between Russian and the west since the cold war.

Most people he met in the Russian prison system, “the police officers, prison officials, judges, prosecutors, they don’t believe in anything”. Most are not pathological sadists, he says, they were just doing a job. “But the Alpha Group, the FSB special unit that was escorting us, I saw ideological hatred. They believe in this stuff and that’s even scarier.”

Kara-Murza’s grasp of history underpins his certainty that Putin’s regime will collapse – quickly and without warning. “That’s how things happen in Russia. Both the Romanov empire in the early 20th century, and the Soviet regime at the end of the 20th century collapsed in three days. That’s not a metaphor, it was literally three days in both cases.” He believes passionately that the best chance of a free and democratic Russia and peace in Europe rests on Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.

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[–] [email protected] 78 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I mean that's generally how these things go. The regime collapses when it can no longer keep the internal conflict or economic strife quiet. It starts before it ends, but we don't know it's happening until it ends.

[–] [email protected] 75 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

It’s like the Hemingway quote about going bankrupt:

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Dont wanna be pedantic, but I think the quote was

"Gradually, and then all at once."

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago

Don't wanna be pedantic (yes I do) but after a little bit of searching, the originally presented quote seems correct (without the "and" though, it seems). Your version is mixed with a common misquote "Slowly at first, then all at once." of that quote.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

Okay, but will it be replaced by something better, or just the most ruthless, violent and opportunistic who can rush in (heh) and fill the power vacuum first?

[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Well, all the top contenders are being defenestrated, and that evolutionary pressure is creating a new niche that will be filled by some kind of smart, quiet, and patient opportunist. Maybe.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 month ago

Putin was a smart, quiet and patient opportunist. He rose to power because people thought they could install him as a puppet at first. He just then quickly cut the strings and had the puppeteers taken care of.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago

We have no way to know that. But when things are bad, it's worth trying out. It can turn out badly, but there's also a chance for a good kind of change - those do happen sometimes as well.

[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 month ago (1 children)

3 days....

Special regime change operation.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago

Regime change is illegal and we don't do that!

Furtively pushes Chile, Iran, Iraq, and a host of others back under the rug

[–] [email protected] 33 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 month ago

Foiled again

[–] [email protected] 27 points 1 month ago (1 children)

That's a powerful move after being incarcerated in Siberia.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago (2 children)

What is Russia going to do about it? Poison him in the UK?

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago

Yes, exactly that.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Not to burst your bubble, but they've done it before.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago

I think that might be what he was alluding to

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

It was a joke. I am well aware of the Novitshok assassination.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I think he knows...

[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 month ago

We didn't care about replacing him.

If he'd been ... remotely fucking human, we would have been fine tolerating him forever so long as he didn't throw kids into blenders.

Now, he chose to give us no choice, he's gotta be gone.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 month ago (1 children)

youre gunna hafta cut the head off this particular dragon, me thinks

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Oops. Not dragon. Is hydra.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Yee; gonna have to go for the heart me thinks.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago

Whoops hydra heart it's got multiple hearts