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submitted 1 day ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

Just how useful is a forecast in a knife-edge election like this one, anyway? Even the insight that it could go either way is useful, Silver argues. “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter” – that giggle again – “but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term? Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”

And while he fears a Trump win – “There were a lot of guardrails in place last time that prevented complete and utter disaster, but those guardrails have been weakened, right?” – he warns against painting it as an existential threat to democracy, at least as a political strategy. “The notion of basically holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing … Biden was like: ‘OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters … whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman”. He worries, though, that she has “retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was a good idea to keep running [him]. I guess she kind of had to.”

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[-] [email protected] 16 points 15 hours ago

You can't escape America's influence and policy no matter where you go.

[-] [email protected] 26 points 23 hours ago

Contingency plans. Yeah. Sure. I don't think there are any that most of us can make. There aren't any countries I could move to that would be any better I don't think. I'm too old, I don't have degrees, my only job qualifications aren't particularly in demand because the training for them is fast, and the only family connection to citizenship elsewhere I had is insufficient because it's too many generations removed from me.

I suspect the cast majority of people who would be even worse off than me under another Trump/Republican administration are in just as bad if not worse a position.

[-] [email protected] 8 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago)

As a green card holder I do have the option of going "home" - except I own a house, have a wife, friends, a job, a car, a phone - all with payments still left on them (especially the wife waka waka waka) - obviously I'll leave if I'm literally in danger, but if I'm not and it's just that I don't like the president and it negatively affects geopolitics somewhat, on a personal level, leaving the country would be disastrous for me.

[-] [email protected] 4 points 15 hours ago

I know this is a bit away from the subject, but how difficult was it to get your green card? I have a boyfriend in the USA and we're planning to move in together in the near-ish future but I'm anxious about the process of getting a green card

[-] [email protected] 6 points 15 hours ago

H1B hire from a ways back. If you can get it in under 6 years, you're really ahead of the curve. Anticipate lawyer fees and some delay, as a pro who knows the process and a long wait were definitely part of our experience.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 14 hours ago

Thank you! I read that it takes time and is full of layer stuff, but I just didn't know how true the things I've read up were (I've read one person say it took them 7 months from getting married to getting their green card just as an example of how those websites all you their guides for getting a green card)

[-] [email protected] 2 points 14 hours ago

Fiance visa took about 10-11 months for entry to the country, then converting it to a 2 year green card took roughly 7 months, then when I renewed it they changed it to a 10-year one.

I think it's different with every type of visa though.

[-] [email protected] 4 points 14 hours ago

At least go and buy a gun, so when we inevitably hunt for billionaires to cannibalize together, you can at least contribute something, for fuck sake.

[-] [email protected] 29 points 1 day ago

LOL.

"Guy on book tour says something clickable!"

Who cares.

[-] [email protected] 21 points 1 day ago
[-] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago

Protege of Peter Thiel. Let that sink in.

[-] [email protected] -2 points 9 hours ago

Show your work. And if it’s just Silver now works at something Thiel funds, don’t bother and rethink your life instead.

[-] [email protected] 0 points 5 hours ago

This right here is the definition of cognitive dissonance. STFU.

[-] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago

That's for the people who have the means.

[-] [email protected] 104 points 1 day ago

That somebody like Trump has a chance in hell of winning the election again is kind of proof enough that this country is already lost.

[-] [email protected] 48 points 1 day ago

Friendly reminder for my trans bros and sisters, please get your passport squared away and start hoarding HRT in case shit hits the fan.

[-] [email protected] 9 points 22 hours ago

Come to California. We'll fight for you.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 9 hours ago

lol no you won’t

If things go that bad, no state is standing up to the power of the federal government.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 8 hours ago

We do it all the time. We are right now telling the Federal Government that we refuse to prosecute illegal immigrants. Just a few decades ago we did it with gay marriage.

[-] [email protected] 4 points 14 hours ago

Unless if you're homeless, you can go fuck yourself if you're unhoused.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 10 hours ago

California spends more on its homeless than any other state. It's a huge part of our annual budget.

[-] [email protected] 6 points 23 hours ago

Im not taking the risk, I have to leave this country :c

[-] [email protected] 1 points 16 hours ago

Where are you going to go? It seems difficult to relocate to another country without dual citizenship

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[-] [email protected] 54 points 1 day ago

Nate Silver isn't worth listening to.

That being said, I have my contingency plans laid out.

[-] [email protected] 81 points 1 day ago

There's also this:

instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.

Nate Silver knows how elections work. He knows there is no such thing as more money than you need in a presidential campaign. That's an astoundingly dishonest thing to say from someone like him.

[-] [email protected] 40 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I'll never trust that degenerate grifter anyways. When I heard he was so cocksure of his stats knowledge that he ~~lost~~ spent 10k a day on gambling, that's all I needed to never listen to him again.

At the end of the day, his prognostications are a very expensive coin flip.

Edit: see the strikethrough above.

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[-] [email protected] 27 points 1 day ago

Silver is using poll numbers from before the debate. It's not worthless, but it's outdated information.

But I want Democrats feeling the pressure and vote like Democracy depends on it, so I'm happy if he keeps fluffing that pillow.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 15 hours ago

His model actually accounts for whether polls were taken before or after an event, and raises and lowers their impact and error margin based on that. Right up to the debate, his model was giving Kamala a <30% chance and it's only the inclusion of new polls since the debate that have moved her to 50%.

[-] [email protected] 24 points 1 day ago

I'm glad I'm a dual citizen, but I'm not sure how easily I'll get my wife over to the UK.

[-] [email protected] 22 points 1 day ago

This is exactly my situation. My kids and I could move over there easily and in an instant, legally. But I'm not sure what the process is for my wife.

Also, there's more to moving to another country than just the legality (and that aspect alone is insurmountable for many unsuspecting people). You're talking about leaving/moving/selling all your belongings, vehicle(s), possibly also a home. And going through the whole process of getting a new job, new schools, cultural shock for kids. And transferring money over, setting up be accounts, etc. And dealing with starting from scratch with credit scores and such. And all that would involve moving back to a country that has its own pretty profound struggles right now. It's a massive headache. But it's something we are definitely considering.

[-] [email protected] 22 points 1 day ago

I know, it's a really big problem. But my daughter is queer, so if Trump wins, she and I are getting out before Trump takes office. We'll just have to figure out the rest after that. Thankfully, I have friends and family over there who would be able to help.

[-] [email protected] 17 points 1 day ago

My prediction is that if Trump does win, there will be a civil war within the next 4-10 years. Each side will get backing from separate national groups. Except middle eastern countries (with the exceptional of Israel). They'll probably just sit back and watch the US burn. And staying in that state-of-mind, that would have the potential to spark WWIII.

[-] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago

My fear is there will be some form of civil war either way, but it will be much much worse if he wins

[-] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Except middle eastern countries (with the exceptional of Israel). They'll probably just sit back and watch the US burn.

~~Hope they're cool having an awful lot less money then, the US is one of the main powers propping up the oil industry out there. We stop buying and the market collapses. It's not like Russia is going to step in to buy the surplus, and I doubt China would want to even if they probably can afford it.~~

Edit: Wow, I am completely wrong as evidenced by people below, I admit I did not look this up before speaking about it. That's my mistake.

[-] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago
[-] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago

Wow, okay, fair enough. Edited the prior comment to reflect this. Thanks for teaching me something I should have looked up first.

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this post was submitted on 21 Sep 2024
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