No, You Can’t Beat an Olympic Table Tennis Player : sports

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (3 children)

“Some people who don’t play table tennis actually think they have a chance to win a single point,” said Anders Lind, 25, of Denmark, the No. 62-ranked player in the world. “It’s cute. But it’s not true.”

The idea isn't crazy, depending on what sport you have as a frame of reference.

I mean, I'd have a chance to win a single hole against a pro golfer with a lucky shot. I'd have a chance to score a single hit against a major-league pitcher. I'd have a decent chance to at least sink a single ball against a professional pool player. I'd surely capture a few pieces in a game of chess against Magnus Carlsen (though not any he didn't intend to lose, so bad example). I might even be able to Forrest-Gump my way to a touchdown against a pro football team if someone sent me a perfect pass.

Of course I'd have no chance to win an entire game in any of those cases, but in many sports, a competent amateur has a chance to at least get a point against a pro.

That said, I've seen pro table tennis and I know for sure I'm not getting a point unless they are struck by well-timed lightning. We are not playing the same game. It'd be like going to a motorcycle rally with my bicycle.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I’d have a chance to win a single hole against a pro golfer with a lucky shot

I’d have a decent chance to at least sink a single ball against a professional pool player.

That's because golf and pool aren't head-to-head sports (per se); the other golfer(s) or pool player can't interfere with your ball as you hit it.

All the others, you're honestly kidding yourself. You would not hit a 95mph 'cutter' fastball off a professional pitcher, or run a touchdown against a pro football team.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

That’s because golf and pool aren’t head-to-head sports (per se); the other golfer(s) or pool player can’t interfere with your ball as you hit it.

Excellent point! That's also basically the scenario I mentioned with football and baseball. In football, you'd need to have a clear shot and be a good runner (like in Forrest Gump). Unlikely, but within the realm of possibility for an athletic non-football-player. In baseball, once the ball is in the air it's anyone's game. Anyone who can swing a bat has a chance to get a lucky hit. Not a good chance, but a chance. Especially a professional athlete from a different sport. I mean, we kind of saw that when Michael Jordan played baseball. He had a very respectable batting average...for a basketball player. :)

If you put me in the majors, I'd bet I could manage a .001 batting average!

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I honestly think you don’t understand the physics of it. You’d have no chance with football, because you’d have coverage the entire time and would not be able to shake it. I know that and I haven’t watched football in 15 years. And baseball, if you’re up against a pro player in a pro game, you’re using a wooden bat and there’s no way in hell you’re getting that around with enough force in the amount of time it takes the ball to travel from the pitcher’s mound to home plate. They start swinging before the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand and they still barely hit it. You might touch the ball with the bat, but you are never in a million years making it to a base.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

If you can accept the possibility of making contact, you should be able to accept the possibility of a hit. The difference between a hit and a foul is, like, centimeters or milliseconds. Why do you think a difference of that size is literally impossible?

We're taking about a chance, so it's fair to ignore the worst-case scenario and consider the best-case scenario. Forget about 100mph heat; that's the exception even in pro play. And we're not going for consistency, so you can forget about reaction time. Feel free to start swinging way earlier than a real pro would. Close your eyes and pray to your deity of choice. There's a chance.

A pitcher does not respond to small-scale movements of the hitter once the wind-up begins, so this is not a 100% head-to-head skill issue. There is plenty of time for a reasonably-athletic layman to get the bat through the strike zone in a time frame that overlaps with the range of probability of a pitch. Not with any consistency, because that would require precise reaction and control that are not possible without a ton of experience. But again, we're not talking about consistency. We're talking about a single stroke of luck. A single hit is within the realm of luck. Skill simply tightens up that probability distribution in your favor.

As for football, yeah, I concede your point. The the kind of play I'm describing happens every season, but you're absolutely right that a layman wouldn't actually be able to get in position to make that catch in the first place. My scenario was assuming a miracle position for a good runner to take off, which puts it outside the range of a single stroke of luck. My bad.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

A hit is not a run. Just because you made contact with the ball does not mean you’re going to make it around the bases, or even at a minimum get the person on third into home. Not only are wooden bats heavy, but they transfer a lot less force than an aluminum bat. A regular person would have no chance of hitting it even to outfield, much less any sort of scoring position.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Whether you're able to take a point depends on how much of the game/sport depends on chance. At one end of the spectrum, chess is minimal percentage dependent on chance; you're never beating Carlsen in a match (though nor is 99.9999% of the population!), but on the other (e.g. poker) there's a big element of luck, and the skill element is knowing how to play to your best odds.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Let's be real, you're also never beating a pro poker player.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago

You could well beat a pro poker player in a hand -- point is you're never beating them over the course of a game.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago

Reminds me of a card game my brother taught me once. I managed to take two games off him after dozens. He was using me to test some decks he was deciding between taking to a world championship, that he won 4th in. It's technically possible to win a game, but there's practically a 0% chance I'd have won a match.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 months ago

People always underestimate the skill difference between a professional and amateurs, when they're not said professionals. Sports, construction work, anything.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Table tennis is one of those games that takes such an insane amount of finesse. Every time I've tried it I've felt so clumsy. How could anyone think it's easy?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago

I used to be an above average table tennis player. I got humbled on a regular basis by a guy in a wheelchair who played in a local table tennis club. Everyone who thinks he can beat him is either really really good or delusional

[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I've badly played some competitive table tennis and I'd not take a single point. There is however the chance that the pro fouls a serve. Not a big chance if they are just making safe serves and prepares to murder me on the off chance I get the serve back over the net. I doubt I would, even if I'm better than average.

I played someone at a corporate event who obviously had played quite a lot for fun and with friends, but he hadn't played anyone who could spin the ball. After I noticed, he hardly got anything over the net or on the table anymore, even if he was good for an amateur. The same goes for playing the pros. Even if you know how to handle spin, the amount of spin pros can put on a ball is unbelievable and your ball will hit the net or be way off the table. Every time. No exceptions. None.

Spin is only one aspect of the game. Speed is another and at that level it is unbelievably fast. The speed the balls have that the pros are able to return is fantastic. To even produce those speeds isn't something most can do, and to do it on a ball from a pro and also hit the table? No. Just no.

I've played lowest league players where I went without points and even they certainly wouldn't get any points in the Olympics. Your chances in all this? Figure it out.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

There's also the lucky chance for your own serve to hit the edge of the table just right. That would be my attempt to get a single point in such a match.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

That never happens if you try for it in my experience. You could also aim for a net hit, but I've seen rescued ones so it's not a sure bet either. The top guys are so fucking quick it is unreal. They'd also catch on pretty quick to what you're doing so I doubt it'll be effective even if you succeed after a while.

But yes, apart from them fucking up, that's likely the only chance.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago

That shit's scary.