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submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[-] [email protected] 261 points 1 month ago

The only certain thing is nobody knows who will be elected until after the polls close and counting is certified.

VOTE. Everyone vote as if yours is the only one that matters, because it may be.

[-] [email protected] 95 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

100% agree. Polls also don't really account for voter suppression tactics, or gerrymandering and other GOP fuckery, so absolutely vote because our democracy is literally at stake here.

Our future generations will be impacted by the outcome of this specific election.

[-] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago

I tend to wonder how these polls are conducted and who is answering them? Does anyone get polls via email or text? Are they still just calling people? I’m in my 40s and basically no one I know my age or younger answers numbers they don’t know anymore, and texts are ignored or flat out blocked because if you respond, they barrage you later, or at least that’s what we all assume.

So I’m not convinced polls have any bearing on what will happen anymore. VOTE!

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[-] [email protected] 120 points 1 month ago

That is an uncomfortably close margin but it's good to see she's leading now at least.

[-] [email protected] 79 points 1 month ago

It's only been like one day.

[-] [email protected] 53 points 1 month ago

Yeah, and it's great to see Trump's standing reversed in that one day!

[-] [email protected] 39 points 1 month ago

Better 2-pts up with Harris than 3-pts down with Biden. I like the direction those polls are swinging, even if I wouldn't put money on an outcome.

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[-] [email protected] 32 points 1 month ago
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[-] [email protected] 25 points 1 month ago

Other polls I had seen just yesterday (likely collected before Biden dropping out was a reality) still had Trump with a 1% or more lead over Harris, so they're really all over the place and I wouldn't trust them for much, even up to and including election day. I'm not breathing a sigh of relief until victory is declared, and even then, I wouldn't be so sure.

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[-] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago

This is a swing and she's only beginning to build momentum. Let's hope things keep moving in the right direction.

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[-] [email protected] 85 points 1 month ago

Polls are garbage. Vote like they don’t exist.

[-] [email protected] 24 points 1 month ago

Polls are garbage.

The mainstream professional polls have been reliable for some time. They typically get within 2-3pt margin of error when taken a few days before the election, and they serve as a useful bellweather to track public sentiment. In this case, it appears jettisoning Biden is bringing voters back to the Dem fold. That's what Dems were banking on, and I'd consider it a good thing given how much I don't want Trump to be President.

Vote like they don’t exist.

People who obsessively follow polling are the ones most likely to vote.

[-] [email protected] 11 points 1 month ago

Stepping aside may honestly be the single greatest show of leadership Biden has done in his lifetime. If the polls are swinging, it's as much due to him making such a historical and respectable move as it is people surprised and refreshed by Kamala Harris.

[-] [email protected] 17 points 1 month ago

Vote like idiot rule the world, and try to make their day worse.

[-] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago

Polls were historically accurate in 2022 and generally do a good job of measuring the temperature. Still, vote like they don't exist.

[-] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago

Exactly. If polls didn't matter, Biden would still be running for president. With that being said: vote.

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[-] [email protected] 56 points 1 month ago

Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.

National polls go beyond meaninglessness and into actual harm. The national popular vote does not elect the president, as we all should know too well. My vote in Illinois is worth far less than someone's vote in Wyoming. Your vote in California is worth far less than someone's vote in Alaska.

Unless a national poll weights responses based on state, and based on the electoral college results from states, it is completely misleading.

[-] [email protected] 29 points 1 month ago

And my vote in Oklahoma.....oh fuck it who are we kidding lol. Meaningless. I still do it though.

[-] [email protected] 21 points 1 month ago

In a similar situation. Theres a zero percent chance trump doesn't win my state by at least 10 points. Still gonna vote though.

[-] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago

He'll see the popular vote count and it will annoy him. He was mad about it even when he won!

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[-] [email protected] 9 points 1 month ago

Both of you should be asking how your vote could be made meaningful outside the scope of your current evaluation.

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[-] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago

Just saw Oklahoma has one of the lowest voter turn outs in the nation. With Tulsa and Oklahoma city it's more progressive than most people realize. We've just got to get out and vote and convince those around us to do the same. I know we have the numbers to win local elections.

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[-] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Lots of downticket races can be swung by a popular presidential nominee.

That said, Oklahoma's awash in O&G money and its state bureaucrats are notoriously corrupt. At some point, the sheer volume of gerrymandering, vote caging, and criminal disenfranchisement needs to be addressed. Simply shouting at people to "GO VOTE!" when they're getting handed broken machines and defective butterfly ballots and threatening robocalls isn't helping anyone, least of all the candidates they're hoping will win.

[-] [email protected] 9 points 1 month ago

Nah, not meaningless. Any swing away from the degenerates will dispirit them.

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[-] [email protected] 50 points 1 month ago

I know the top comments in these subs is always something along the lines of “fuck the polls! Go vote!” I agree but damn it is nice to get some positive news now and then!

[-] [email protected] 22 points 1 month ago

Right? Enjoy something positive for a few seconds!

[-] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago

I agree, and also, go vote!

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[-] [email protected] 43 points 1 month ago

As with all the discussions on national polls, it's necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don't have national elections.

Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don't reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don't have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.

Looking at the notable states I've looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.

Arizona - Trump +6 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +10 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico - No data for Harris.

Georgia - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Tied.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota - No data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Harris also puts Virginia in play now as well, in what was assumed to be a blue state, now Trump +4.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

So this is her starting point. She has 105 days to turn this around. The Democratic convention in August is key.

As of right now though? Here's the map:

[-] [email protected] 32 points 1 month ago

Those polls don't account for anything that happened after the switch, like the impact of the record number of donations and news blitz. Need to wait for the next round before we really have any idea, and a few more in a few weeks to see where it levels off

[-] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago

Yup, like I say, this is the bottom.

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[-] [email protected] 8 points 1 month ago

So ESPN favors trump is what you are saying. That site is owned by them. Always look at the bias.

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[-] [email protected] 35 points 1 month ago

i'm going to need so much popcorn to watch GOP squirming and flailing desperate to find something to attack LOL

~~she's too OLD!!!~~

~~hunter's laptop!!!~~

~~buttery males!!!~~

LOL

eat shit, republicans

[-] [email protected] 32 points 1 month ago
[-] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago

"she hates dogs!!!"

LOL j/k. that's trump. trump hates dogs

[-] [email protected] 16 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Oh yeah, there's also "She never had kids!"

[-] [email protected] 14 points 1 month ago

There will be quite a few Muslim allegations as well, for reasons. Which is funny, considering she has history with nearly everything besides Islam.

[-] [email protected] 9 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Oh yeah, probably. Has the GOP ever really sorted out their racist talking points about Indians (from India, not Native Americans)?

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[-] [email protected] 9 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

From a Politico article, we can see how the Russians are starting to talk about Harris. The Republicans aren't usually far behind...

“Kamala with the nuclear button is worse than a monkey with a grenade,” Andrei Sidorov, the dean of the global politics department at Moscow State University (a once highly respected institution) said Sunday evening on state television’s prime weekly talk show.

Edit: and then there's this: Unhinged Republican candidate calls Kamala Harris a “little wh*re” as GOP descends into misogyny

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[-] [email protected] 27 points 1 month ago

Let it be a runaway snowball of a lead

[-] [email protected] 16 points 1 month ago

This is good. Early, sure, but its numbers going in the right direction.

[-] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago

That's good news but still too close. We all need to continue informing the public that Donald is a dementia-ridden geriatric physically and mentally unfit for the office.

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[-] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago

Popularity or percentage of electoral college votes?

Only one of the two matter.

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[-] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago

1.) POLLS ARE GARBAGE.

2.) Corporate news cannot run a horse race without polls

3.) See #1

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this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2024
568 points (96.7% liked)

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