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If they can get 10 miles past Tokmak they can rain hell on the M14 highway with 155mm howitzers, cutting off most supplies reaching Melitopol and areas farther south.
Then if they dig in and hold it becomes a waiting game.
Don’t forget blowing up the train tracks leading into Tokmak! It’s not really about taking Tokmak but putting fire control on the train running through Tokmak. If Ukraine can prevent resupply via the trains then everything west of Tokmak falls practically without a shot.
I'm keeping my expectations low.
Being overly optimistic will only lead to dissapointment. It seems inevitable that this will continue to be a hard slog.
Man this is no time to be reasonable! /s
If Ukrane can pump enough energy into Tokamak, then we can start converting the Russians into deuterium. If the front gets stable enough, we might get a net output of electricity. Hopefully this happens before winter, as cold fusion is harder to do.
Every journalist and news editor that writes up one of these articles about X force making gains in Y region towards Z town without including at least one, if not multiple, maps showing what they're describing, needs to be brought before the Hague.
The tiny thumbnail they include doesn't even show Tokmak, let alone the events described in the article
For those who want a proper analysis, I strongly recommend the Institute for the Study of War's analysees which they update regularly.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24-2023
Today's summary includes 8 maps.
IRC they also have an interactive map somewhere on their site.
Ukrainian forces advanced closer to the Russian second line of defense in the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 24, further widening their breach of Russian defensive lines in the area. Geolocated footage published on August 24 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced further towards the Russian defensive lines west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv) and into southern Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv).[30] Some Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces maintain limited if any, positions in southern Robotyne and that fighting continues east of Robotyne.[31] A prominent Russian milblogger expressed concern at the Ukrainian breach of Russian defensive lines in western Zaporizhia Oblast and stated that this is a critical moment on the battlefield.[32] The milblogger stated that Russian forces need to hold their positions for at least another month and a half to try to make gains in another area of the frontline and attempt to shift the battlefield situation in favor of Russian forces.[33] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valeri Zaluzhnyi responded to criticisms about the Ukrainian counteroffensive by stating that it was not a counterinsurgency but the Battle of Kursk, referencing a weeks-long World War II battle that ultimately allowed the Soviet army to regain the battlefield initiative and recapture significant swaths of territory.[34]
Isw has been the best for this conflict, though they have been a bit too favorable towards ukraine at times.
Still, very good coverage.
Imagine not having the entirety of Ukraine memorized by this point