this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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Image features Haitian Creole, meaning in English: "Let's Join Hands To Remove Haiti From The Boot Of Domination-Occupation!"


Welcome to the first news megathread of 2024! Last year saw rather little territorial movement in Ukraine (though shocking levels of attrition), and while BRICS has made some important moves, such as the upcoming expansion, there's no massive anti-imperialist offensive yet for us to really analyze. Instead, a lot of things have been going on behind the scenes, with the anti-hegemonic axis of China, Russia, Iran, and others forming a lot of bilateral currency deals as they distance themselves from the dollar. This all culminated in a rather boring year, or so I had thought until October 7th. The courage and heroism of the Gazan Resistance showed us that the imperialists truly are paper tigers, and Ansarallah demonstrated that American naval control is more illusory than the likes of John Bolton would like to admit.

This year will almost certainly be even more interesting and horrific. Debt across the developing world is at record levels, and the incoming hurricane that is the global recession not just on the horizon, but rapidly moving inland. Russia seems to once again be escalating in Ukraine with the return of large missile strikes, and the Zionist entity is failing to make much progress against Hamas, let alone Hezbollah, let alone Iran - instead vying for civilian bombings and propaganda campaigns (e.g. wedding proposals and drawing stars of David in Gaza to prove just how not mad and not owned they are, as their soldiers shit their pants due to insufficient military preparation and brigades are withdrawn due to the tremendous casualties they are experiencing). I'm sure there will be other sudden events that will occur this year. Here's my bingo grid:

In the midst of all this, it's easy to forget the other underdog nation on the other side of the world from Palestine - Haiti. Since I last covered them, about half a year ago, the UN was on the verge of allowing a Kenyan police force to enter Haiti to "restore order", as the country is in a chaotic, perhaps potentially revolutionary situation. This has been described by various Haitian analysts and experts as essentially a US military force in blackface - white blows from a black hand - and Kenya's president, Ruto, has received a lot of aid from the US because of their willingness to step up, including a five year military deal. It took a while longer than I thought for the vote to occur, but on October 2nd, the UNSC allowed Kenya to do this (Russia and China abstained). However, the Kenyan Supreme Court needs to confirm that this is constitutional, and will give their verdict by January 26th. Many Kenyan lawyers and opposition leaders say that this is blatantly not constitutional, but given all the US aid on the line, breaking the constitution might be worth it to Ruto, whatever the backlash.

From the article from which much of the above information has been sourced:

But Washington now has its hands full with other problems. Its proxy war against Russia via Ukraine is going very badly, a fact that even the U.S. mainstream media is now forced to acknowledge. Meanwhile, the successful Oct. 7 uprising by Palestinian fighters against Israeli occupiers has apparently blindsided both the U.S. empire and its foremost client state. The entire Arab world and Global South are both horrified and outraged by Israel’s ever-growing war crimes, as over 20,000 Palestinians, half of them children, have been slaughtered and starved. Meanwhile, the dysfunction in Washington is deepening, Biden’s approval rating is plummeting, and the U.S. economy is lurching toward another crash.

All this means that Haiti may finally catch a break. The desperation in Haiti is very intense but so is the apprehension of and indignation against another foreign intervention. That resistance continues in the streets of Haiti and its diaspora.

Viva Haiti!


The weekly update is here on the website.

Your Tuesday briefing is here on the website and here in the comments.


The Country of the Week is Haiti! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 49 points 11 months ago (5 children)

ancaptain xi-gun

PAY BACK OK?

Swap: if Javier Milei does not negotiate, Argentina will have to pay China more than US$5 billion in 2026

Sources who participated in the last negotiation confirmed to Ámbito that the agreement expires within two years and that if it is not revalidated, the section that has already been used for the currency exchange must be paid.

A few days after Javier Milei assumed the presidency, Ámbito announced the Chinese government's decision to reverse the release of the last tranche of the swap that Sergio Massa and Alberto Fernández had negotiated. But that's not all, this medium was able to corroborate from sources who participated in that negotiation that the currency exchange expires in August 2026 and that, if a new agreement is not reached by then, Argentina would have to pay more than US$5.000 million to replace the yuan that was used. The situation caused internal friction in the Government due to ideologized diplomacy.

The bilateral relationship with China under the administration of La Libertad Avanza did not start in the best way. President Xi Jinping responded quickly to the grievances that Milei launched at the Asian giant during the campaign and backed down with the release of fresh funds that were going to provide oxygen of US$6.5 billion to the liquidity of the Central Bank to face imports or debt payments, as happened previously with the International Monetary Fund.

The snubs to the second trading partner escalated with the praise of different members of the Government for Taiwan and were reflected in the resignation from the BRICS, which was made official at the beginning of this week but what Ámbito anticipated a month before. At the same time that Argentina renounced participating in the emerging bloc, countries as dissimilar as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Ethiopia and Iran joined as full partners.

This step aside, which was communicated by letter with texts copied to the presidents of the founding countries, leaves the country without the possibility of accessing funds from the New Development Bank that already finances infrastructure works for more than US$38.5 billion in everyone. It is also presumed that it would complicate the progress that had been made with the Development Bank of Brazil and would not pave the way for the arrival of Saudi dollars.

What could happen with the swap?

The economic team is not enthusiastic about the hyper-ideological view that Diana Mondino gives to foreign relations. Firstly, because several of the current officials participated in the negotiations to renew the swap during Mauricio Macri's government, but also because, if the link with China is cut, Argentina will have to replace the yuan that was used last year.

This is about US$5,000 million that the Fernández government used to accelerate imports of inputs. To this we must add the interest: the rate paid to China is confidential, but it has always been clarified that it is below what the IMF currently charges and analysts estimate that it is around 6% annually. High sources who participated in the last negotiation confirmed to Ámbito that the current agreement expires in August 2026 and that, if a new extension is not negotiated by then, you must pay.

It is not a minor fact. The accumulation of reserves is a central point of the economic program, especially if one considers eliminating exchange restrictions. Furthermore, there is so far no evidence that the markets are willing to provide the Government with fresh funds. Debt with the Monetary Fund, with the Paris Club, with private creditors, lawsuits in foreign courts and more. The maturity schedule does not look easy for the coming years.

Original article in Spanish

Hell yeah we owned these commies huh!

[–] [email protected] 27 points 11 months ago

Genuine question here: Will he even make it to 2026? Because things are not looking up for them..

[–] [email protected] 26 points 11 months ago (1 children)

lathe-of-heaven China demands payment in the form of the public companies Melei plans to privatize. China ends up owning all the services in Argentina. A new communist party is set up in Argentina. All services are offered free to members of the Communism with Chinese Characteristics Party of Argentina. Chinese owned Companies in Argentina only hire CCCPA members. CCCPA is voted into power with a massive majority.

China preforms a corporate style hostile takeover of Argentina and the whole western world quakes in fear that Communism used hyper-Capitalism to devour a nation while the global south rejoices in the hope that they too will be freed from neo-colonialism.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 11 months ago

Melei is selling the rope China uses to- well, you know.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 11 months ago

President Xi Jinping responded quickly to the grievances that Milei launched at the Asian giant during the campaign and backed down with the release of fresh funds that were going to provide oxygen of US$6.5 billion to the liquidity of the Central Bank to face imports or debt payments, as happened previously with the International Monetary Fund.

feels like something went wrong with the translation of this section maybe? I thought Xi refused those payments

[–] [email protected] 20 points 11 months ago (1 children)

This is actually good for the US. Now Argentina has to earn more dollars to repay their Chinese creditors, and it places Argentina and soon the rest of the Latin America under the firm control of the US as a dollarized region.

I cannot stress enough that only the cancellation of dollar debt in the Global South can truly defang US monetary imperialism. China and BRICS have to stop giving out loans in dollar, and even write them down/cancel them outright.

Otherwise this is just another case of “helping the enemy”. How could this happen? The traitors indoctrinated by neoclassical theories, trained by the best of the Chicago school, are already within your economics departments.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

I'm probably missing something but it appears to say twice that the debt is in yuan?

EDIT: found this article which appears to confirm that the currency swap is a yuan debt

The China-Argentina swap line allows the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) to receive yuan from the PBOC in exchange for an equivalent amount of Argentine pesos.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 11 months ago

It was a yuan swap with PBoC to pay back IMF loan, which now Argentina is looking to get out of, according to the article that OP posted. That means Argentina is effectively on its own now that it has thrown away the Chinese life line.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

I remember reading somewhere (not very helpful I know but I was at anywhere from 5-110% brain juice when online at any point this year) that a lot of China's debt agreements through FOCAC and from Chinese creditors to large businesses in those nations have various conditions related to political changes which make them less friendly in the event of a coup.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 11 months ago

Afaik it just gives China leverage in the event of a coup. If the new party is still friendly, business as usual.