Venezuela referendum result: voters back bid to claim sovereignty over large swath of Guyana (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 9 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Disputed territory of Essequibo is larger than Greece, rich in minerals and gives access to part of the Atlantic boasting oil in commercial quantities

Venezuelans have approved a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over an oil- and mineral-rich piece of neighbouring Guyana, the country’s electoral authority announced.

Few voters could be seen at voting centres, but the National Electoral Council claimed more than 10.5 million ballots were cast in the country of 20 million eligible voters.

Venezuela has long argued the territory, which comprises two-thirds of Guyana, was stolen when the border was drawn more than a century ago. But Guyana considers the referendum a step toward annexation, and the vote has its residents on edge.

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[-] [email protected] 5 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

I don't think that Venezuela's government actually intends to do more than talk and score some political points with nationalist voters. It's not going to invade.

Guyana's in a defensive military alliance with almost all the other countries in the Americas, excluding a few (like Venezuela). Notably, the US is in, and a collective defense pact like this this bypasses Russia's ability to veto military intervention by the US at the UNSC.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-American_Treaty_of_Reciprocal_Assistance

The Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (commonly known as the Rio Treaty, the Rio Pact, the Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, or by the Spanish-language acronym TIAR from Tratado Interamericano de Asistencia Recíproca) is an agreement signed in 1947 in Rio de Janeiro among many countries of the Americas.[2] The central principle contained in its articles is that an attack against one is to be considered an attack against them all; this was known as the "hemispheric defense" doctrine.

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Charter_of_the_United_Nations#Chapter_VI_-_Pacific_Settlement_of_Disputes

Article 51

Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.

I doubt that Maduro has any intention whatsoever of kicking off a war with the US, much less most of the rest of the Western Hemisphere.

[-] [email protected] 4 points 9 months ago

The Wikipedia article you linked actually shows Guyana as not part of the TIAR, whereas Venezuela actually is.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Oh, you're right about Guyana. Guess they were one of the few that didn't join.

But Venezuela isn't in -- they left some time back.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago

Oh, thank you. That's good to hear. Won't the referendum backlash against his administration then, since it's toothless?

Or you think it's specifically to score points with those who already support his regime, just a hawkish declaration?

Still seems politically risky if he isn't going to do anything about it.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Won’t the referendum backlash against his administration then, since it’s toothless?

I mean, I don't follow Venezuelan politics, but I would expect that he's worded the thing in such a way that doesn't actually commit him to doing much.

Elections in Venezuela are next year, and it looks like he's not so popular at the moment. But if he can spend time before the election visibly taking a position that sells well with voters....shrugs

googles

Yeah, here's the referendum text. It doesn't bind him to actually do anything, just asks voters whether they agree with maintaining the dispute:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Venezuelan_referendum#Questions

this post was submitted on 05 Dec 2023

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