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Stop quoting Springford, he's a fantasist. No one can predict shit.
Austerity did lead to it. As did the neoliberalisation and delusions of ever more political union would somehow fix it.
And your chart shows the exact same thing as I've been telling you, UK is and was the 2nd largest economy in Europe. No change.
Dude is an economist. It's not a hard science because ultimately, it's all down to how people react. Looking at what the UK would be like without Brexit is of course fantasy, but you can do best guest based on economic theory. There are very few economist who think Brexit was a good idea.
Austerity was the response to 2008. It was the wrong response and not what our most famous economist, Maynard Keynes, would have recommended. Austerity made 2008 direct effects, worse, but it's all still 2008.
The gap between Germany and UK went wrong for the UK in 2015. Germany clearly was less messed up by 2008, but the something else went wrong.... In 2015, UK $2.93B, Germany $3.36B. Now it's UK $3.07B and Germany $4.07B.
All these dismal economists are looking at brexit using boomernomics. Climate change demands a clean economy, disruption is necessary. Brexit affected carbon intensive agriculture the most. Being out of the CAP is the brexit benefit. Our entire existence is due to 6 inches of topsoil that has been destroyed by production subsidies, fossil fuel fertilisers, pesticides and herbicides.
And yes, Germany does very well by being in the EU, cheap currency and cheap labour for their manufacturing exports.
The UK, not so much, the single market for services is very weak in comparison to goods. And as the stats show, productivity has not been improved by being in the EU.
Yer deregulating fertilisers, pesticides and herbicides is going to be really positive for the top soil. https://inews.co.uk/news/environment/britain-brexit-freedoms-bee-killing-neonicotinoid-2104102
Being in EU was better for our services, especially our massive financial services. Losing passporting alone was bad.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-says-glyphosate-safe-enough-for-full-re-approval/
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23895654/europe-cage-free-animal-welfare-farming
GG!
And all that happened to our financial services was some desks got beefed up in the EU. Trade still happens in London. All the clearing is still done by LSH SA, in the EU. Big deal.
Short term pain, long term gain, according to Bailey
https://www.cityam.com/bailey-brexit-has-created-opportunities-but-policymakers-must-tread-carefully/
"could" and "may" well as the known bee killer is here right now.
Carney was better, anyway, again, that is uncertain future gain (doubt it) for defiant current pain.
Yes, a decent government would have banned it. Hopefully that'll be in Labour's manifesto
Carney was not, he left rates too low for too long and printed too much money meaning we had less headroom when covid hit. His errors are being compounded.
To be honest, all I want from the next Labour government is to to get this country's voting system off FPTP. I want Mixed Member Proportional Representation like New Zealand and Germany.
Brexit is just one of the toxic falls out of our broken democracy.