this post was submitted on 06 Jul 2023
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most sites do not start out shittified, they become ENshittified.
That is fair. I mostly just think its interesting that he was fairly upfront about it. Meta is a for profit business, so its not unexpected. I do think it will be interesting though because they seem pretty committed to account portability, and if they stick with that then that puts some pressure on them to maintain a good user experience. Even all the talk about embrace, extend, extinguish, all starts with the assumption that Threads will be so big it will make changes and force other instances to either comply or get defederated and the assumption is that users would flock to Threads from Mastadon rather than the other way around. Personally, I expect Meta's move here is going to increase interest in Activitypub and more projects are going to be launched on it, both from startups and established big tech. I think its equally plausible that the better analogy is AOL opening up to the world wide web and HTML and getting swallowed in the process. There is a lot of fear about Threads, but I'm not convinced this is a doomsday scenario for the fediverse, I'm personally cautiously optimistic.
It's nice to see a (cautiously) optimistic voice on this subject for a change, although I think I feel less optimistic than you. But I do think there's the potential for it to be mutually beneficial so long as Meta remains non-malevolent.
I think there a few key differences that mean the Google XMPP situation can be used as a direct parallel, too. Google didn't really see much benefit from staying federated, because all federation did with live messaging was mean that non-Google users were benefitting from Google's users without being monetised by Google. When Google's users lost access to their non-Google contacts, the vast majority of them just carried on as usual, meaning Google continued monetising them as usual and it was only beneficial for Google as a company.
I don't think that's the case with Threads. Meta will continue to benefit from federating with well-moderated content in the future because, for Meta, it's content that's being created for free by another platform that they can still monetise. And if it's well-moderated content, that's effectively free moderation, too - something Meta would normally have to employ people for.
More interest in Activity Pub from other big players would definitely be a good thing, if only to make sure no one company has a monopoly. It would potentially have disadvantages, of course, but I think if tech giants are going to get involved, I'd rather multiple get involved to keep things somewhat competitive and (hopefully) drive consumer-friendly ideas.
I appreciate your take and pretty much agree with everything you said. I've seen the XMPP example thrown around a lot, but the distinction you made with the benefit that Threads gets from federation compared with what Google got is spot on. I'd add that Threads is currently selling the account portability piece as a major draw for public figures warry of needing to rebuild followings on new platforms every couple of years when their current platform goes to shit. That is another benefit to keeping federation, theoretically anyway.
I really like that the fediverse is kind of in a utopian stage right now, people are volunteering to spin up servers and putting their time and energy into making them run smoothly for everyone, people are pitching in with donations, the community as a whole is full of positive early adopters excited about what this could be. Hard to predict where things go from here. Maybe Meta comes in and destroys everything like some fear. Maybe tech firms come and compete and push the small non-profits and volunteers out, and the fediverse just becomes competing big tech platforms. Maybe the tech firms and volunteers/non-profits can kind of coexist, something like the FOSS community where you have some bigger firms making money (Redhat/Canonical) working with volunteers and foundations. Even if things stayed volunteer driven, there is also the risk that an individual instance could get so big that it starts demanding changes from other instances to continue federation or throwing up targeted ads. I think with the Twitter and Reddit fiascos, Tik Tok has begun the enshitification process, we're entering a new post-centeralized social media world, but what that world ultimately looks like I don't know.
I'm cautiously optimistic for two reasons: 1) Threads is bringing more general attention to Activitypub, which is positive in general but especially with Meta making a big bet with their money and what's left of their reputation, and 2) Threads is here, its impractical to think the existing fediverse community is going to erect a giant wallaround them, so I might as well hope for the best cause this shit is happening.