Shrapnel/ splinter from the teleprompter, it appears.
Somebody posted pictures of the teleprompter that were captured after he was hit and there was no sign of damage on them. All we really need is a close up of his ear and it would settle it. I personally think he was hit, the picture of his ear looks like there are two wounds un the upper part. Like a rod piercing or something. But it's hard to tell with the blood.
Edit
Hmm, interesting. I casually wonder, but don't really care, what the caliber of bullet was that the gunman used. The only reason to make this distinction is to have an accurate historical record. As I've said elsewhere, we live in an annoyingly stupid timeline.
I think it was .556 your regular old ar-15 caliber
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