politics

Literally name who else, or shut the fuck up. Calls for Biden to drop out without an alternative are nonsense.

Until we know different, me too.

To be fair "He is in this race and I support him" is like saying "He's one of the candidates of all time". It is a milquetoast, borderline sarcastic endorsement.

AOC is definitely a voice in politics I've come to respect. I can assume pretty confidently that her opinion is well founded and with the right intentions... if she thinks Biden is best option at this point, that tells me pretty conclusively that Biden is genuinely the best option at this point.

The debate shenanigans, the age, whatever: all of that is a fraction of a drop in the ocean compared to the shitstorm that would be Trump presidency. It doesn't matter if any of us like Biden. Do you want a literal fascist running the country? If no, vote Biden. If yes, abstain / vote for literally anyone else.

Take note how all the world politics experts that were yelling “gEnOciDe jOe”, are now somehow experts on cognitive function and one’s ability to run a political cabinet.

Also take note how seemingly overnight- they all shifted their concern to beating everyone over the head with reports on how Biden isn’t up for the job- despite the fact that we all know that news media is in the business to profit from dumbasses that eat this shit up.

This is an obvious movement to disrupt the election. VOTE LIKE LIVES DEPEND ON IT.

Their narrative is that they don’t want an old man incapable of making speeches, yet they’re fine to see for a rapist felon that spent the entire debate lying his ass off.

VOTE!

Biden doesn't make policy decisions standing at podium reading a teleprompter. He sits in meeting and has discussions with advisors and has follow up discussions and rewrites policies and discusses votes and rewrites again with further discussions. That's who I'm voting for and I think he is still able to do that.

My heroine...

I think a lot of people are overthinking this. She's supporting Biden because as of today the battle is "over"

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/09/biden-house-democrats-withdraw-nominee

No use falling on swords anymore, apparently.

This is going to be awful though, as Biden is going to get demolished in another debate, and it'll look terrible if he refuses.

First- I actually really like seeing AOC not being one of those "burn the house down" politicians as I knew her when she started. It seems like she's learned what it takes to get a large group of people to do one thing, and outrage politics does not do that. Frankly this is the restraint I would look for in a future presidential nominee.

Second- at a base level I'm very for Biden stepping down and giving us the opportunity to escape this hellhole of an election cycle. John Stewart put it pretty well to the DNC- "Do you understand the opportunity you have here? Do you have any idea how thirsty Americans are for any hint of inspiration or leadership, and a release from this choice of a megalomaniac and a suffocating gerontocracy?"

I always look for reasonable takes from opposing viewpoints, and I did find American Historian Allan Lichtman's argument for why Biden stepping down would not be the best idea. Here's the 6 minute video of his 13 keys to the Whitehouse which has predicted 9 of the past 10 elections.

TL;DW:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.

8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

If 5 or fewer of these statements are False, then it is predicted that the incumbent will win. His take is that replacing Biden will do nothing but make point 2 & 3 turn from True statements to False statements, and increase the chances of Trump winning.

While crystal balls are everywhere and you could point to other political scientists who would say different, I was looking for a decent take on the counterpoint. I would also say that in political science, we like to have tools to help us make predictions so we can make actions. Just going on deep gut feeling won't cut it. Having a tool whose measurements don't always align with how you feel an outcome should be doesn't necessarily mean the tool is bad, it means it works independently from your biases. If you watch the video, I think he puts it well as the election is a thumbs up or thumbs down on the party more than it is the individual leader. It might be a helpful thought exercise to change the words "Trump" to "Republican" and "Biden" to "Democrat" when discussing the race as charisma and celebrity only goes so far in politics, but that's what we get caught up in the most.