this post was submitted on 05 Dec 2023

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An Early Warning That Policing May Be in Decline | Police departments across the country are solving far fewer crimes than they did before 2020. (www.nytimes.com)

submitted 11 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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While headlines tend to focus on falling clearance rates in large liberal cities, the decline occurred nationwide in both red and blue cities, counties and states. The violent crime clearance rate, for example, fell considerably between 2019 to 2022 in big cities, which tend to be led by Democrats, as well as in small cities and suburban and rural counties, which tend to be led by Republicans.

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[+] [email protected] 72 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (3 children)

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 11 months ago (2 children)

They don't even do that...

At most they'll do the paperwork to get any video footage from private business, but for the most part unless that randomly happens to see you breaking the law you'll never get caught.

They tried a "slowdown strike" a couple years ago, and realized they really could just not do anything and still get paid. Even better, higher crime rates means more overtime. Not just from the force, but businesses afraid of being robbed.

Cops can get paid 100/hr to sit outside of a liquor store in a cop car and burn gas all night their department pays for.

Very few people are dumb enough to rob that store while the cop is there, so there's 0% risk. Cops just sit on their phones the whole time.

They have every incentive in the world for crime to bad as possible.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I once had a video of someone committing a felony and I wanted to press charges. He got arrested a couple days later on unrelated charges. I called the cops and told them that they have someone in jail who I have on video committing a felony and I want to press charges. Their answer was pretty much "tough shit". They're definitely no Columbo!

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago

I believe you would need to contact the district attorney for that.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 11 months ago

Well... that is kind of their job. They can only find the pieces and it is up to the judicial system to establish guilt.

Unless you want to live in the world of Judge Dredd.

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[–] [email protected] 43 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (4 children)

It's not necessarily the case though that fewer crimes are being actually "solved," in the most precise sense of the term.

It could be that the current heightened interest in police oversight and focus on investigation of (and huge lawsuit payouts as a consequence of) wrongdoing by the police has made it less likely that people will be railroaded/framed for crimes they didn't actually commit, so the rate at which crimes are marked as solved has declined, even as the rate at which they actually are solved hasn't.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 11 months ago (1 children)

That's definitely a big chunk of the drop in case clearance rates since the 1960s. It's not as clear that there have been actual changes to police honesty recently though.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 11 months ago (1 children)

It struck me after I posted that that modern technology and investigative techniques would also contribute to such a decline.

It's undoubtedly more difficult to falsely convict someone (whether deliberately or not) in the era of GPS, cell phone records, video surveillance and DNA tests.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 11 months ago (1 children)

There's a famous example of how improvements in understanding of burn patterns resulted in concluding that a bunch of people were falsely convicted for arson:

Due to the extensive publicity the case received, and because the murder charge carried a potential death sentence, the prosecution hired Lentini and John DeHaan, who had coauthored a fire investigation textbook, to evaluate other theories of how the fire may have started. One possible explanation was that one of the children, playing with matches, had ignited a sofa.

Fortunately, two doors down from the Lewis’ residence was an almost identical house. Lentini and DeHaan received funds and permission to furnish that house with the same type of furniture and carpeting as in Lewis’. Then they wired the structure with sensors, lit the sofa on fire and recorded the results. Within minutes the house was an inferno, due to a flashover. A flashover occurs when a burning object generates hot combustible gasses that ignite and engulf an entire area in flames.

To the general amazement of everyone involved, Lentini and DeHaan discovered the same burn marks on the floor of the test house that prosecutors thought indicated arson. But rather than having resulted from a liquid accelerant, the marks were caused by flashover. Prosecutors quickly dropped the charges. “That case opened my eyes,” Lentini said. “There were all these rules of thumb you can find in the literature at the National Fire Academy that are just wrong.”

[–] [email protected] 6 points 11 months ago

Don’t credulously accept the testimonies of expert witnesses. Examples of “the science” proving years later to have been pseudoscience abound.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Ding ding ding ding ding! This is exactly the case.

The police are merely getting away with less corruption and misconduct. The metric "solving crimes" has ALWAYS been a red herring.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

While this certainly sounds plausible, even rational and perfectly logical, it's also the exact sort of argument that could easily be spurious. Now, i'm not making that accusation (nor do mean to imply it), but do you happen to have any data backing up this assertion?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago (16 children)

Eh?

I said that it's "not necessarily the case that" one thing and "it could be that" something else.

Logic and plausibilty are all that's necessary.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago

In my anecdotal case, the dipshit police here weren’t able to pull over people of color without dragging them out of the car and beating them (they lost a lawsuit) so they literally don’t pull anyone over for anything anymore, and people have figured it out.

A year later, and people just run stop signs, red lights, speed everywhere, etc. We just had a fatal crash yesterday from someone running a red light at 15 over the speed limit. So while it’s popular to hate police, they literally won’t even do the bare minimum anymore to keep people safe.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Portland Police collects 1/4 of a billion dollars every year.

For that:

They don't respond to 911 calls:

https://www.wweek.com/news/courts/2022/08/31/mayor-calls-rebukes-portland-police-bureaus-claims-of-understaffing-bullshit/

They don't do traffic enforcement:

https://www.wweek.com/news/courts/2022/08/31/mayor-calls-rebukes-portland-police-bureaus-claims-of-understaffing-bullshit/

They don't have a gang/gun violence taskforce:

https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/06/09/mayor-ted-wheeler-agrees-to-disband-the-portland-police-bureaus-gun-violence-reduction-team/

Even the bike theft team is gone (after having one of their own bikes stolen).

https://www.kgw.com/video/news/local/the-story/portlands-bike-theft-task-force-eliminated/283-7de1f9a1-6f89-40b0-99c9-cb3f54125c89

So what are they doing with 1/4 billion a year?

[–] [email protected] 26 points 11 months ago

Stockpiling tear gas in case people complain.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (2 children)

I dunno, it looks like it’s pretty much in line with the long-term trend for the past 60 years. It’s also interesting that crime has been generally declining over those same periods (both long-term and short-term), suggesting that catching and punishing offenders isn’t as big a factor in reducing crime as most people assume.

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 11 months ago

They're also making up crimes. First hand account here.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Why solve when you could shoot

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

Why do actual work when you can collect overtime by hanging out at a crime scene with your buddies for an hour or two?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

This is the best summary I could come up with:

The exact causes of the decline in arrests are difficult to pinpoint, but the timing is clearly tied to the summer of 2020, suggesting that changes in policing and America’s dwindling confidence in law enforcement since the killing of George Floyd played a role.

Low morale and extreme stresses in the departments have led to high levels of resignations among older and more experienced officers and significantly fewer recruits to replace them.

It also means significantly longer response times, leaving clues to grow stale and witnesses to disappear before officers arrive.

For a long time, conventional wisdom pointed to factors beyond the control of law enforcement — such as whether a witness was present or whether physical evidence was left behind — as the primary drivers of solving crimes.

But newer research from a criminologist, Anthony A. Braga, presents a clear connection between the amount of investigative resources dedicated to a crime and the likelihood of its being solved.

Civilians can respond to low-level incidents that don’t require an officer, take reports over the phone and aid investigators in solving cases.

The original article contains 1,069 words, the summary contains 181 words. Saved 83%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

This is by percent, but not by total volume.

This could easily mean that crime is on an incline.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

They directly say that this is not the case.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

The comments here should be good. All well thought out and reasonable. munching popcorn

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

Best warning I have ever had. More of this please. Pigs don't solve crimes anyway.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

The point of police isn't to stop crimes, they're an occupying force to control their own citizens. Militarization isn't a bug, it's a feature.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago (3 children)

The solve rate for rape is 25%? That's horrifying. What the fuck? We have more tools available to solve crimes now than ever before in history. Get off your asses and give people some justice!

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

There are many issues with this, mostly that a large number of victims don’t immediately seek help and because of the delay (often months or years) cant have a rape kit done.

This reduces the evidence available for finding and prosecuting the offenders.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

If women aren't submitting rape kits, how come so many forensic labs have huge backlogs of untested kits?