this post was submitted on 26 Feb 2024
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[Dormant] Electric Vehicles

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No, electric vehicle sales aren’t dropping. Here’s what’s really going on (www.cnn.com)
submitted 10 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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Tesla has been slashing prices. Ford just cut the price of its Mustang Mach-E, too, plus it cut back production of its electric pickup. And General Motors is thinking about bringing back plug-in hybrids, possibly taking a step back from GM’s earlier commitment to shifting straight to pure EVs.

And now the EPA is considering slowing down requirements for automakers to sell more electric vehicles, dialing back what had been aggressive plans to move away from gas powered cars and SUVs.

You’d be forgiven for thinking the American market for EVs is collapsing. But in the last quarter of 2023, EV sales were up 40% from the same quarter a year before, according to Cox Automotive. In fact, EV sales in the United States hit a record last year, topping 1 million for the first time.

Still there is a troubling gap between expectations and reality. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, for instance, had projected sales of 1.7 million plug-in vehicles in 2023, but only 1.46 million ultimately sold. (BNEF’s figures include plug-in hybrids, but the large majority are fully electric vehicles.) The trend line isn’t slanting upward as sharply as many had predicted so the industry is lowering future estimates.

Industry experts cite a number of reasons for this, including vehicle price, lack of charging capacity and confusing tax credit rules.

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[–] [email protected] 24 points 10 months ago (2 children)

This seems pretty easy to me... If the number sold in some time period is less than the number sold in the previous time period, then sales dropped. If it's greater, then sales rose. I'm having trouble seeing where the confusion is coming from.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (2 children)

Because it's not always that simple. If the sales for the last 2 years are as follows: 2022 Q1: 0.8m, Q2: 0.7m, Q3: 1.0m, Q4: 1.1m 2023 Q1: 0.9m, Q2: 0.8m, Q3: 1.1m, Q4: 1.2m 2024 Q1: 1.0m You'd be "technically correct" (the best kind of correct!) to say that sales dropped from from 2023 Q4 to 2024 Q1. But in all likelihood, no sales didn't drop.

(edit: dear god the markdown on this site is fucked.)

[–] [email protected] 19 points 10 months ago (1 children)

dear god the markdown on this site is fucked

| | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |

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| | 2022 | 0.8m | 0.7m | 1.0m | 1.1m | | 2023 | 0.9m | 0.8m | 1.1m | 1.2m | | 2024 | 1.0m | | | |

Better?

[–] [email protected] 6 points 10 months ago (2 children)

Wow, this chart is great. Thanks.

It seems the pattern here is that people buy more electric cars later on in the year. Q1 sales are always lower than Q3 and Q4 sales, but I don't want to draw a hasty conclusion. We need more data.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Given that @[email protected] said "If the sales for the last 2 years are as follows", I'm not sure whether this is actual data, or just an example.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Does not match 40% increase, Q4, YoY

[–] [email protected] 2 points 10 months ago

I wonder if what we should be looking at is proportion of sales that are EVs instead of absolute numbers.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 10 months ago

I've made a fix so tables in markdown work now.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 months ago

It's those that want to paint EVs as failing causing problems. There's been a spate of stories suggesting companies are changing their mind about EVs. They're not, I think they've just had to make lots to satisfy pent up demand and now they ongoing sales rate is lower.

However, more companies are entering the market, and dividing an increasing market between more of them.