this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2023
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Since their leader has no sway with the oligarchic class that effectively holds power in Russia, it seems unlikely he would be able to consolidate power. If somehow he offed Putin it would be more likely to end in civil war IMO than in Prigozhin as head of Russia.
You're absolutely right. It will lead to nothing other than civil war. Which is how Putin will spin it - he'll try to say that since Wagner are nazis, that they were actually working WITH the Ukrainian Nazis and NATO against Russia etc. blah blah blah
As much as I'd love these monsters to go to war with each other, it would mean civil war in the country with the most nuclear warheads, and that makes the prospect something I can't celebrate.
This seems so accurate
Does the Russian upper class have access to sufficient military power oppose the Wagner group?
Probably not. But Wagner group doesn't have the manpower to subjugate the entirety of Russia either.
Russia doesn't have the manpower to subjugate the entirety of Russia either.
The Russian national guard is supposed to be fairly large, and you would think that the air force can operate inside the borders of Russia (for now).
Do I think they can march on Moscow? No. But I'm also not convinced that this can be outright stopped without compromising the war.