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Open secret at climate talks: The top temperature goal is mostly gone (www.politico.com)

submitted 11 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Leading scientists worldwide delivered a striking dose of reality to the United Nations on Sunday: it’s “becoming inevitable” that countries will miss the ambitious target they set eight years ago for limiting the warming of the Earth.

The ominous estimate points to the growing likelihood that global warming will shoot past 1.5 degrees Celsius before the end of this century, inflicting what scientists describe as an overwhelming toll from intensifying storms, drought and heat on people and the economy. It also injects an urgent message into global climate talks in Dubai, where the debate over ramping down fossil fuels is set to flare over the next two weeks.

Surpassing the temperature threshold — even temporarily — would be a major blow to the international Paris climate agreement from 2015, which called for nations to keep global temperatures well within 2 degrees Celsius of their preindustrial levels, and within 1.5 degrees if at all possible. The findings come amid climate talks that for the first time are focused on taking stock of whether almost 200 nations are meeting that goal. Early indications offer a bleak picture.

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 11 months ago

I understand where you are coming from, but the context necessary for it to make sense is that you don't have to operate following the assumption that the seasons work the same for each hemisphere, one actually has a colder winter than the other, so that would affect the global average with a bias for the colder one. Think of it this way: the average winter temperature for the Southern hemisphere is not as cold as the average winter temperature for the northern one, so when taking them both into account for the global average, the temperatures in the north are going to skew the results (the Southern winter is not enough to offset the high temperatures of the northern summer, so the global average of the earth in its entirety is colder during the northen winter)

As to why that happens, well you are right that distance to the sun is one of the biggest factors for temperature, but it's not the only one. Global climate is a dynamic system, with a lot pf variables interacting with one another. Things like ocean currents and the amount of landmasses play a big role in regional climates. For example, thanks to the ocean currents Europe enjoys a milder climate than it would given its latitude. In this case the Antarctic cold is unable to go north due to being sealed by the Antarctic current, which encircles the continent. Also, the Southern hemisphere has a lot less landmass than the northen one, and water is a temperature regulator, so that affects the climate down here as well.