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Bombshell poll shows number of Brits who believe Brexit has gone very well hits new low
(leftfootforward.org)
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this post was submitted on 30 Nov 2023
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UK Politics
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I'm afraid I'm a little sceptical of Labour winning. Not because I don't want them to win but because the voting in this country is fucked.
General election 2019, Boris got a "landslide" victory with "the largest ever vote for a single party" at 43% of the vote.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
The system is so fucked that Corbyn had 30% of the vote and still Labour lost 60 seats.
In 2015 the Tories kept power under Cameron with only 36% of the vote.
If a third of the population still think that Brexit has been a success, and you have to add the small handful of "always support Tory", then there may be still enough people in this place to keep them going because absolute numbers don't count, it's all about how well they are clustered.
Untill they are all kicked out, I don't know if I could believe it even if they announced that Labour has the majority of MPs.
Do you not looking at polling when you make statements like that? Labour have for some time been polling in the 40s, and the Tories polling in the 20s, and FPTP is brutal when you get that sort of polling differential.
If you take this week's latest YouGov poll (Lab 45%, Con 22%, Lib Dem 9%, etc) and plug it into Flavible, it gives a result of Lab 423 seats, Con 107, SNP 54, Lib Dem 40. This would represent a considerably worse defeat for the Conservatives than even 1997.
And I hope it is a massive defeat that takes them decades to recover.
However I have seen polling in the past election where May was going to get destroyed, where Brexit was unlikely, where Corbyn was going to be PM. A poll is just a poll.
Until we get the real numbers through I'm not going to hold my breath. This country has shown time and time again that we are great at picking the really stupid option.