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this post was submitted on 16 Nov 2023
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Aussie Enviro
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This is the best summary I could come up with:
The current El Niño phase of the Pacific Ocean is forecast to peak during the coming months as one of the strongest on record, laying the platform for unprecedented global temperatures through 2024.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) concurred with NOAA's intensity assessment, however both organisations have cautioned against drawing conclusions on the subsequent change in weather.
The complex relationship between El Niño and weather patterns is especially relevant to Australia where the rainfall impact diminishes during summer while temperatures remain unusually high.
This means that while Australia's rainfall should gradually shift to resemble a conventional summer pattern during the coming months, our temperatures are likely to remain well above average.
An additional influence on our upcoming summer temperatures is Earth's record warm seas, which according to the WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update strongly favour ongoing warmth for Australia.
Thankfully, the alternating phases of the Indian Ocean, unlike El Niño and La Niña, do not linger through Australia's summer and the subsequent impact on our weather has completely faded by January.
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