this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2023
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Me when the weather app says 80% chance of rain, so I go everywhere with an umbrella but it's overcast all day long. Then it says 15% and I get rained on while walking to the store.
I'm never going to learn.
I found out recently that those percentages actually mean 80% of the local AREA would have rain and 20% would not. Meaning if there is a chance of rain in your town at all it’s likely raining somewhere even if it’s just a tiny drop or two.
So if you don’t want to get wet at all bring an umbrella if the chance is over 0%.
Source: was talking to a meteorologist about this exact thing.
Well rain chance is a compound probability it's the probability that it will or will not rain multiplied by the percent of land hit with rain. Like if 50% of an area will be hit and there's an 80% chance it will rain the number the weather Channel will give you is 40%
Chance of rain is calculated based on two things: Meteorologists' educated guess on the chance of rain, multiplied by the area that will receive rain, in the event it does rain.
https://www.discovery.com/science/chance-of-rain