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Unsold electric cars are piling up on dealer lots
(www.axios.com)
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this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2023
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Yeah, a lot of hybrids are coming in at $40k with $7500 tax credit, still get you 80%+ reductions in practical gasoline consumption, use a tiny fraction of the expensive / rare Li-ion batteries (really, its the Cobalt not so much the Lithium...).
I think pure ICE is nearly obsolete and that hybrids need to be considered the new minimum. I get that it will take time to change people's opinions, but today's Hybrids are incredibly cheap (ex: Ford Maverick truck is only $26k for 40MPG thanks to its Hybrid engine). But for better or worse, ICE is still a hell of a lot cheaper, even cheaper than Hybrid (though Hybrid and PHEVs are closer to the point where total-cost-of-ownership wins out due to lower gasoline prices).
What's your take on battery degradation? I feel a large majority of people continue buying ICE because there's historical proof they can go 300k+ miles with regular maintenance. Simply fill the tank, change the oil, and you're ready to rock again. If my hybrids battery fails I have quite a major component to replace else I'm using exclusively ICE and might as well have bought a battery-less vehicle.
It depends on the data that comes in, really.
All Li-ion degrades, but is it a 300k item or is it a 100k item? Even transmissions fail out on typical cars... I know, my family's old Previa had its transmission die. It was totaled, it cost more to replace the transmission than the value of the old van.
At 150k miles and a $7500 priced battery (ex: Ford Escape PHEV), this comes out to $5 per 100-miles. On top of 15-cents per kW-hr or ~$5 per 100 miles of electricity. Overall, we can see that even with just 150k miles and these assumptions, the total-costs (electricity + battery maintenance) is $10 per 100-miles. My local gasoline is $3.50, this means that your ICE needs to drive better than 35mpg (at $3.50 per gallon of fuel) to beat out these assumptions.
If the hybrid battery lasts 300k miles instead, then well... that's closer to $7.50 per 100-miles or you need to do an MPG of 46 to be competitive.
Hard to say really, but most of the math I've crunched is pretty good. The PHEV is at least within the reasonable bounds of price, even with the cost-of-battery factored in.