this post was submitted on 17 Jun 2023
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There are fewer computer users, when you look at it by proportion of the population, since most people who aren't into PC gaming, programming, video editing and similar have switched to just using phones and tablets.
That said, there are still plenty enough people to keep the fediverse going, and frankly I don't think it needs to be nearly as unintuitive to the average user as it is. That's a design problem.
Granted, I've thought the same of Linux for ages. It could be as intuitive and user friendly as windows... Except the people who create it are largely nerds who cater to themselves and fellow nerds, and who even take pride in using a relatively inaccessible system, which results in both the absence of basic features (like no color blind mode! In 2023! C'mon) and forums that are mean and condescending to anyone who asks a question (not everyone is like this, of course - there are people who genuinely try to help others get into Linux - but there are enough other people doing the opposite that it's very unpleasant to deal with as a newbie.)
All of which is to say, whether the fediverse can become mainstream or not depends on whether it can overcome its own nerd culture and prioritize ease of use. I hope it will, but Linux hasn't yet, even after all these years (although it is a little better, arguably, at least). We'll see I guess.
I switched to Linux this year for three reasons: I hit my limit on sales-pitch notifications from Microsoft, I learned about Proton in Steam, and I finally accepted that I don't really use Creative Suite anymore. At this point, it's faster and easier to install Ubuntu than Windows assuming drivers aren't an issue, which you learn at the beginning of the process with live media.
I agree it needs to be more intuitive, however, I would argue that Linux is far more intuitive than it used to be. Still, people didn't switch.
Another driving force is that people don't like change, and people use whatever others use. TikTok bought another company just to get their userbase, it's that important.
The fediverse is fighting an uphill battle. You'd have to provide a platform that is far more intuitive and engaging than the competition, while relying on volunteer labour.
People switch behavior patterns for a reason. It doesn't matter how good or bad either option is, most people won't even be aware that switching to something else is an option until whatever they are currently doing fails to meet their needs in some way.
We just saw this play out with Kbin and Lemmy. It wasn't something inherent about them that suddenly increased the userbase. It was an external event. The Fediverse just happened to exist already, but if Huffman hadn't gone on an ego trip then they probably would have stayed very small things for the forseeable future no matter how good the experience was.
I agree, I think Lemmy needs to be more easy to use and accessible if we want it to go mainstream. Us tech nerds tend to grossly overestimate what the average computer user's tech skills are. Here's an interesting study showing that most adults in the world barely know how to use a computer at all: https://www.nngroup.com/articles/computer-skill-levels/ Of course, people who are on Reddit already have a certain degree of tech-savviness, but Lemmy still has a more confusing UI than Reddit.