this post was submitted on 08 Sep 2023
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The birthday paradox
If you get 23 people in a room the odds of two of them sharing a birthday are 50%
it's not part of the paradox, but there are also days when people tend to have more sex
like new years, valentines, christmas etc. (in the west at least)
so you tend to get more people born 9 months after those days
Relevant
This seems like a logistical nightmare for all systems related to pregnancy and childcare if it were to actually become a popular thing, like damn, just pay people for having kids its not that hard
In high school my graduating class was 38. The one before us was 21, the one after 18.
Coincidently there was a massive blizzard that snowed everybody into their house for a week about 9 months before my birthday.
Yeah that's why so many people have birthdays in September
I listen to This American Life also.
i don't know what that is
! I just assumed, lol
They have an episode where they talk about the birthday paradox and then follow it up with talking about how the math isnβt 100% correct as applied to humans bc birthdays arenβt normally distributed.
https://www.thisamericanlife.org/630/transcript#:~:text=A%20simple%20way%20to%20think,those%20two%20share%20a%20birthday.
ah, fair enough lol
Blows my mind how this by its bare bones is just simple statistics and combinations but is a totally different story when described in English. I'm sure there are similar facts like this that are mathematically logical but to a layman is confusing and inconceivable.
communism
I'd test this, but I don't have 22 friends.
The concept of a room is malleable. Go to a 22 person tf2 server and ask birthdays.
But you need 23 people.
Swab is a person, are they not?
So not really then. I've always heard this but not seen it explained. But what you're saying is that with every interaction the likely hood of finding a match goes up. But realistically, probabilities like that are just fun quirks of math, not representations of reality. Probabilities are doing the math on events, but these are events discussing concrete and unchanging dates. Every person paired up isn't given a random date in every interaction. They have a set date from the outset, you just don't know it. There's not a random number generator picking a number from a set every time. Unless you're in a simulation and none of this is real and birthdays don't exist and the computer you're plugged into has to make up a random birthday every time you interact.
Sorry, but I honestly have no idea what youβre trying to say. If you have questions you can click on the Wikipedia link!
Ah. Sorry, I assumed you knew what you were talking about about and not just copy/pasting a thing you found. My bad.
It helps if you can compose a coherent sentence! :)
Your inability to understand is not my problem. I suggest a reading comprehension class. I understand that some of those big words like "Probabilities" and "math" might be too much for you. It's okay. We all have things we're good at. You'll find yours one day.
That's completely wrong lol. Nowhere is there an assumption that birthdays are randomized each time, you just don't understand the math.