this post was submitted on 05 Sep 2023
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Would be nice if there was any headway in that sense but it seems we just get more and more reasons why society can't keep going like this, but it keeps going like this.
I did not move goalposts one inch. You are thinking of mobile games as "small games" when in fact they are more profitable than console games. I specifically contrasted "niche" to "blockbuster". Candy Crush may be simple but it's one of the the most profitable game of all time, it is not niche. Even something like Final Fantasy Dissidia Opera Omnia surpassed 100 million dollars in revenue, which would be a huge fortune for the average, mildly sustainable indie. If you look at them solely in terms of how costly they are to develop you are missing the point.
They are not going to be making, say, psychological surreal point-and-click adventure games because it's not so easy to shove microtransactions out the wazoo and get hundred million dollars from them. You see them making a lot of live services with endless progression, multiplayer and arcade-style games where it's easy to monetize.
I never meant small in terms of profits, I only ever meant in terms of development resources, that's what generative AI will impact. The most humble games can become huge hits, see: Stardew Valley. With a better cost proposition, we might just see those psychological surreal point-and-click adventure games.
Also do mind that Final Fantasy XV: Pocket Edition isn't a gacha, it's a scaled down port of the game of the same name that's divided into ten chapters; the first one's free, but the other nine will cost you. Meanwhile, Final Fantasy VII: Ever Crisis, a free-to-play port of Final Fantasy VII too will be episodic, but it will have a gacha for weapons and costumes.
Well I did mean small in terms of profits, because that's what directs the investment of big companies. So, yeah, I don't think so. Farming Sims weren't even seen as a money maker until Stardew Valley became a hit. Sure they can chase trends, but even if it was cheaper it's pretty unlikely that they'd bother investing in genres they can't see big returns in. Even with AI, it's not like they can put "psychological surreal point-and-click adventure game" on a prompt and get a finished product that easy, they will still need to invest in developers for it, nevermind all the marketing that big companies do for their releases. It's more likely they'd release yet another gacha.
Even your examples of it being done different are still the highest profile releases from that company, not some quirky novel idea. They were betting big on FFXV when they released that, and they are doing this for FFVII these times.
The AAA companies are too risk-averse to take out the indie scene, they would rather insist on trends until they stagnate.
I was never arguing that it would be effortless, but easier. I also feel like the marketing budgets are kind of beside the point here of development costs, but hey, generative AI might help with that too.
I don't know, they also released Diofield Chronicle, Triangle Tactics, and Octopath Traveler were smaller budget games with no pre-existing IP that were also pretty experimental. What they make may not be your "psychological surreal point-and-click adventure game", but it might be something just as adventurous.
Eh, a couple new RPG IPs from a company known for making RPGs is hardly such daring venture. If anything, they used to make more of those around the PS1 era. AI may make game development easier, but it won't make such a drastic branching out likely.
Some people consider releasing new RPG IPs pitching your money right in the trash. That's pretty adventurous to me. Even if it doesn't cause a drastic branching out, more companies dipping their toes might make quite the ripple.
Can you imagine if SquareEnix of all things couldn't pitch a single brand new RPG IP? If this is what counts as adventurous, I'm not worried for indie studios at all.
It's wild, but these days this is adventurous, even for Sqaure-Enix. The trend with their AAA games has been not turn based RPG for more than a decade. More big companies might decide to release more modest size games that play to their heritage and strengths.