this post was submitted on 04 Sep 2023
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It never stopped. Hasn’t even really slowed down.
People need electricity. Renewables are great, but they don’t provide for the full generation need. Coal and natural gas power generation will continue unabated until a better (read: lower price for similar reliability) solution takes their place.
In my opinion, fossil fuel generation won’t take a real hit until the grid-scale energy storage problem is solved.
I think thats... not wrong per say, but somewhat misleading. Coal consumption has been steady worldwide for the last decade despite the population going up a whole billion, and as the average persons energy usage has gone up (largely as a result of growing quality of life in developing nations).
Absolutely. Coal has remained consistent as demand for power has risen steadily. Renewables are growing, but remain a tiny slice of the whole generation picture.
Natural gas has become a cheap and reliable replacement for coal over the last 10-15 years as it’s become less expensive to transport. Many coal plants have been converted, even. So as demand has risen, it’s natural gas, not renewables, that is filling the gap.
what is preventing renewables from providing full generation need?
Storage. Coal, natural gas, and nuclear generate power regardless of weather, day and night.
Solar generates plenty of electricity (with enough panels installed), but it slows down significantly under cloudy skies and stops entirely at night.
Wind generates plenty as well…unless the wind stops blowing.
The grid needs power all the time, not just when it’s sunny and windy. For renewables to actually compete, the excess power they generate during sunny and windy times needs to be stored for use when it’s dark and still.
As much as we applaud lithium batteries, our energy storage technologies are abysmally inefficient. We’re nowhere near being able to store and discharge grid-scale power the way we’d need to for full adoption of renewables. The very best we can do today (and I wish I were kidding) is pump water up a hill, then use hydroelectric generators as it flows back down. Our energy storage tech is literally in the Stone Age.
Don't underestimate the battery potential of gravity!
According to https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity#:~:text=The%20round%2Dtrip%20energy%20efficiency,sources%20claiming%20up%20to%2087%25. The round-trip efficiency of pumped storage is 70-80%, that's pretty darn good for cheap mass-storage. There's not much more to gain there.
Pumped water is about the only practical gravity battery, but it has limitations.
So it's great stuff, but I don't think it's going to be the backbone of any storage solution we have.
It works very well, not disputing that.
But, like geothermal power generation (which is also very good), it’s extremely dependent on location. Most populated areas don’t have the altitude differential (steep hills) and/or water supply to implement pumped hydro storage.
Where it can be used, it should be (and largely is - fossil fuel generation does better with some storage as well, since demand is not consistent), but it’s hardly something that can be deployed alongside solar and wind generators everywhere.
With some high voltage long-range transmission lines you could viably do it pretty much everywhere. Just requires some cooperation.
Yes it will slightly reduce efficiency over very long distances, but it's not unreasonable amounts.
Long range transmission of AC power is limited to about 40 miles. DC can be transmitted much farther, but the infrastructure is substantially more expensive (because it’s more dangerous), so that’s only done for extreme need.
We aren’t getting away from having many power generators all over the place, so one location-dependent storage solution isn’t going to solve all the problems.
I might also add there's smart algorithms being developed for about 5y+ now that distribute power surplus and deficiency over a grid. This will probably be key. Just take a look at "energy metering".
ah you already beat me to the response, pumped hydro is already utility scale baseline power supply
Cost, resources availability, and fluctuations in supply.
my energy bill right now is like a new solar panel a month. what resources do we not have, and are you familiar with pumped storage? spoilers, we already have renewable stable energy supply
The truth is, we do have enough resources. We just care more about the economy and profit than our future climate (which will also strongly affect the economy, but that's in the future so...).
If we actually valued the climate as much as we ought to, switching fully to renewables would be a bargain.
We dont' really care about the economy, otherwise we wouldn't be doing this boom-bust shit and we'd have a better planned economy that would ensure there wasn't a perpetual under-class of starving people in every industrialized nation.
Our Government DO care about making sure their donors get paid though.
Everything has a cost of course, building solar panel requires a significant amount of precious metals, which may or may not be easily accessible or affordable depending on the political climate between countries who mine vs the countries who needs the resources.
And the production of solar panel does create some toxic leftovers which needs to make handled appropriately. Not saying they're a bad alternative and they're definitely before than fossil fuel or coal, just needs to consider the cost and the impact of everything.
Mmm, no, no they dont. Solar panels are primarily made from silicon. Sand.
They also need
and some others rare-earth elements, as well as some platinum-group metals. The current photocell chemistry we use is quite complex.
Youve pulled this out your ass https://www.kloecknermetals.com/blog/a-guide-to-metals-for-solar-suppliers/#:~:text=The%20primary%20metals%20used%20in,wiring%20of%20the%20solar%20array.
https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/mineral-requirements-for-clean-energy-transitions
and even then, solar panels are only one part of the whole system, since the source of energy fluctuates significantly.
solar panels do not use these metals you are worried about
Time. People can see past the storage issue when it's not that big of an issue.
Interconnectors and curtailment at peak output are economically optimal. The renewable transition doesn't seem to be slowing.
The renewable boom has only been going for about 10 years. Give it another 10-20 and the world will look drastically different in one generation.
Oh itll look different in 20 years alright, with how slow this is going.
Things are changing fast
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/low-carbon-share-energy?tab=chart&time=2002..2022&country=CHN~GBR~OWID_EUR~USA~AUS
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption?tab=chart&time=2009..latest&country=IND~CHN~AUS~USA~ZAF~OWID_WRL~OWID_EUR
that's uh, a 5% increase over 20 years for US. Another 20 years and renewables might make up 20% of our power! With skyrocketed energy demands for AC keeping us alive from the hellscape outside.
The us is is doing shit because their population doesn't care and the management is poor.
But it's about exponentials and us is just far behind where it should be.
Coal us and fossil fuels is crashing in Europe and China might have hit peak petrol usage.
The S curve is well in its way.