this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2023
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I just realized -
We all know that:
EDIT: "[Or] a fine" that "does not exceed the greater of $25,000 or three times the amount of any pecuniary value gained". Because the pecuniary value is zero, I find it very difficult to believe that a $25,000 fine would be considered an appropriate consequence to violation of GA RICO in this case.
Look at all the people being charged alongside Trump for RICO. When RICO is prosecuted, all co-conspirators are charged as a group. They all get the same sentence.
They're all going to prison.
EDIT:
And and -- In order to be convicted of RICO in GA, a minimum of two crimes must be shown to be part of the same criminal enterprise. Of 19 defendants, it is highly likely that one or more will plea deal and cooperate. Another edit: Because an alternative sentence for a GA RICO violation is a fine, with no prison, that's a basis upon which other defendants or co-conspirators would be motivated to make the plea deal and cooperate.
It's all over but the shouting. Donald Trump is going to be convicted and sentenced to prison in Georgia.
I will believe it when I see it... assuming this did all happen, how long would it take from today before he hypothetically saw cell bars?
The prosecutor is shooting for 6 months if not sooner so possibly March
This is pretty crazy.
What does it mean for a president to be in prison? Does he take his secret service? Does he basically have to stay isolated? Like seriously what are the logistics?
Also, if he is sentenced to prison, are we going to see violence from his supporters? No matter the outcome, it is kind of scary to think about what happens next.
If he is not held accountable, does that mean the next president will push it further? If he is found guilty and imprisoned, does that mean his supporters are going to cause disruptions?
What is the time frame on these things?
We have some indication of how that would play out. John Dean, Nixon's White House counsel, served prison time in a military facility in Baltimore for his involvement with Watergate. It can be done.
Almost certainly yes, I think. His supporters have shown themselves to be capable of violence in support of him, and counter to what they incorrectly perceive as a "witch hunt." It will definitely be ... "interesting." But I don't think it will rise to the level of full-on civil war.
This whole situation demonstrates what happens when a good portion of the rules of government depend on the honor and decorum of its elected officials, and then someone in the highest office in the land, along with their sycophants, set completely aside honor and decorum. The landscape of US politics has already been forever changed, and all of these indictments and their trials and consequences are a necessary reaction to the change. There must be real consequences, and I don't mean a slap on the wrist, otherwise any hope of real democracy is lost.
They certainly will, as above. Whether those disruptions turn violent is another question, which I have answered above.
Fani Willis stated that she would like to see this go to trial in six months. I have heard a commentator saying that is an impossibly short timeframe, that another ongoing RICO case in GA took 18 months to go to trial, nine of those being jury selection. I'm not sure I agree with that commentator, because Willis certainly knows about the other ongoing RICO case, as well as the other RICO cases already tried in GA, and their timeframes. I don't think she would say "six months" if she didn't mean it, and she's fully informed.
We know that Trump's "defense" is to stall, to interfere with proceedings, and to threaten. Judge Tanya Chutkan has already set a standard for her court's response to that kind of behavior: an increase in the urgency for a speedy trial. I'm still waiting for her court's response to Trump's bleatings over the past weekend, after she made that speedy trial consequence clear.
Judges tend to work on a scale of increasing penalties for violating their orders in regard to an existing case. Whether she follows that course, and how aggressively, is yet to be seen, but there's plenty of indication that she will make appropriately measured statements, orders, and consequences.
Thank you for this detailed answer. It really helped me better understand what’s going on.
Here's some more. I put this together this morning, my understanding of the situation with the GA indictments since about midday 8/15/2023. And since then, I've seen some media commentary that supports my assessments, at least in part. Specifically, that Trump will be convicted, and that one or more persons will flip.
Being a president in prison is like being in jail in Monopoly once the board is fully owned.