this post was submitted on 12 Nov 2024
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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It's still possible to limit climate change to 1.5°C if some countries go beyond their own targets (phys.org)
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[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

I've seen a few graphs in my day, and they generally don't do that. Sure, it could happen, but it almost certainly won't. :(

That said, the US and China both making steady progress is very good, but then again, a Trump presidency certainly might see some of that reverse.

I think the big questions is: how do we get Russia and India to curb their emissions? If India follows China's per capita curve, but with a 20 year delay, it'll be disastrous. They're going to need significant help to continue industrializing without seeing a huge rise in emissions.

I don't think I'd have seen this coming even 5 years ago, but China really might be positioned to be a global climate leader.