Asklemmy

43889 readers

956 users here now

A loosely moderated place to ask open-ended questions

Search asklemmy 🔍

If your post meets the following criteria, it's welcome here!

Open-ended question
Not offensive: at this point, we do not have the bandwidth to moderate overtly political discussions. Assume best intent and be excellent to each other.
Not regarding using or support for Lemmy: context, see the list of support communities and tools for finding communities below
Not ad nauseam inducing: please make sure it is a question that would be new to most members
An actual topic of discussion

Looking for support?

Looking for a community?

Lemmyverse: community search
sub.rehab: maps old subreddits to fediverse options, marks official as such
[email protected]: a community for finding communities

~Icon~ ~by~ ~@Double_[email protected]~

founded 5 years ago

MODERATORS

[email protected]

What's your prediction for the 2024 US election? (lemmy.world)

submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

95 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Who's winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) (2 children)

Maybe I'm crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.

Edit - Oops: https://midwest.social/post/18205923?scrollToComments=true

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 weeks ago

You're not wrong, it's because leftists are generally much more critical of gambling.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 weeks ago

Gamblers don't always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html

Gamblers, polls, and the NYT's most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.