this post was submitted on 27 Sep 2024
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I'm familiar with all of that. I spent a lot of time on /r/collapse until it went completely off the rails. Crop data is available online - output in Asia is still increasing. I'm not sure if you looked at my sources but outside of social media that horrific doom narrative is not prevalent.
You know how we had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS? And every time scientists rang the alarm bell, but it turned out to not be a big deal? It's because they knew COVID was inevitable - they knew the sketchy meat markets were a huge vector for a coronavirus to cross the species barrier.
COVID could've been much worse, but it certainly affected everyone. It also probably could have been prevented, or at least delayed
These smaller, regional problems are warning signs. A lot of people are dying from them already, but if we don't take them seriously they're just going to get big enough to have global effects. Not in the next century, in the next decade
Are we going to go extinct from climate change? I don't think so. Are you going to die from climate change? Probably not. Will someone you know die from it? Possibly. Will it negatively impact your life? Absolutely, it already has, and it will keep doing so in interestingly obvious ways
That helps, good analogy. So the effects will be the things we already see - high cost of living, persistent low wages, fewer economic opportunities, increasing social isolation, additional strain on federal budget, reduced social services, changes in crime patterns, increasing poverty class, lower income countries more or less left to fend for themselves/less support, etc. More of the same, but instead of a limited period of economic depression we move into a long term depression and risk in multiple areas (like another pandemic). I can understand that better than picturing what a famine would look like in Toronto. Am I misinterpreting what people are saying, is that what they are already saying?
That's basically what I'm saying - the US massively overproduces food. There's many problems with how it's done and how it's used, but the Americas aren't likely to starve. So long as the US stands, starvation isn't likely - we literally burn crops to keep production at a level where we could feed much of the world
Climate refugees aren't murderhobos - they're people. People that will mostly without a job, often living out of their cars, and largely desperate. They need just as much to survive, but desperate people do desperate things. The ones that aren't desperate will integrate, the ones who are will be a burden on the system
Let's say Florida or Texas start bleeding population. Almost nowhere is equipped to handle 5 million more people in a short time frame - it would wreak havoc on the job market, strain supply chains, and lead to a massive increase in crime. Desperate people do desperate things
Yes, it's our current problems magnified. There is enough to go around, but not like we do it today. We have to restructure the world - will we do it today, while we have breathing room, will we do it in a decade, when our systems fall apart around us, or will we do it decades from now, when the choice is between sacrifice and death
Climate change is here - it's a right now problem. If we give it time, it could collapse everything - if the US collapses entirely, a famine in Toronto is a possiblity. Every city could starve. I don't think we'll get to that point, but there will be death. There is already death. The sooner we start to address reality, the less suffering our species will undergo
I don't think humanity could die out unless Earth becomes another Venus. We're too adaptable, too widespread for that. And if we've already lost, who cares. It's a pointless line of thinking. We could be screwed, but I don't think we are...I think the Earth trends towards a stability humans can live with. I think we have more systems balancing us, if we go down that road it'll be a slow and painful one we won't live to see
This is a problem that will affect you, it will affect everyone. We can minimize it - many will die no matter what we do. But most could survive, but only if we change the systems at play - I think we'll get there, but the question is how much suffering we endure before then