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this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2024
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Collapse into what exactly? China is really too big to operate as a single country. The USA barely manages it and that requires a huge amount of enforcement.
I could see it becoming a bunch of separate squabbling nation states, the Eastern version of the middle East, nobody wants that.
I think China's history is the best predictor of where China will go after this collapse. China's history from the very beginning has been defined by cycles that alternate between a bunch of small warring states that constantly fight each other and giant tyrannical empires that unites them all. You could say the current China under the CCP is another iteration of those giant empires and that after the collapse, China will go back to it's historical mean of being divided by a bunch of smaller states that fight amongst each other.
From which size is a country too big to operate as a single country? I think cultural identity is much more important than size, and the Chinese government has put a tremendous effort in culturally unifying the land with great success (and great cost; see Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, the relationship with Taiwan, loss of local languages and culture). I don't see that disappearing anytime soon.
A civil war with a stalemate is of course possible (in fact it's already the reality), but an USSR style collapse in many different countries is just not something I can see happen.
NATO does.
Yeah that's not correct
It sure seems correct ✅
Do NATO wants a bunch of random political entities with access to nuclear weapons in your view do they? Considering China a threat does not mean they want China to collapse, they just want them to stop being so antagonistic. Perhaps a bit more democratic.
They didn’t seem to mind when the USSR collapsed. Why would they treat China differently?