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this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2024
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Russia's annexation of Ukraine is a geographical one. It's the last corridor of easier mobilisation in Europe. Should the western border close that door, they are quite trapped by borders and the Black Sea with exception of northern approach via Belarus, though a terrible and easily stoppable option.
Should they not have Ukraine, taking more territory in Europe is basically impossible and any dreams of a restored or Empirical Russia are well and truly dead. For all intents and purposes, they will be surrounded by unfriendly borders or impassable natural features. Even if they were capable of some sort of modern Blitzkrieg tactic—theyve proven that could never happen—it wouldn't work.