this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2024
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Sea level rise of 5 meters isn't happening in any of our lifetimes. Don't get me wrong, climate change and its resulting sea level rise are very very real, but even the most dire forecasts don't predict a 5 meter sea level rise in the next 100 years. Models of a high emissions scenario has the rise "only" going up 3.9 meters 126 years from now
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level
A permanent rise, yes, but storm surges and stuff will make Miami uninhabitable far sooner than that.
Miami elevation is 6 feet? Something like that?
True, good point, but the general idea still stands. It's gonna be (I'm totally guessing here) like at least another 70 years before sea level rise + storm flooding events will make inland areas uninhabitable
It'll be within the next ten years that it'll get hit by a Katrina-like event.
The models the ICC accepted were all "in line with historical data". So much so that the "Hot Model Problem" became a known thing, models predicting climate change that were too hot for the ICC to accept.
Our models are conservative, likely by a good margin.
If you read the link i posted you'll see the numbers i quoted are already based on the worst case scenario of prediction ranges, rather than the scenario currently considered most likely. And your claim about a katrina level event happening there seems to be pulled out of nowhere, do you have a source citation for that prediction?
Hurricanes and storms means that you don't need to wait for the full amount of sea level rise. Insurance is already skyrocketing because of the damage.
Insurance? That has already left the state of Florida.
Report: 500K South Florida Homes at Risk of Storm Surge
...
I mean, that's interesting info, but none of it refutes what i said
Storm surge levels isn't the same thing as sea level.
Technically correct, but ultimately irrelevant. Storm surge renders properties below the point of sea-rise height uninhabitable. The fact that its temporary doesn't mitigate the long-term destructive impact it inflicts.
Not irrelevant, it very much depends on the frequency and severity. ~~Katrina~~ Sandy flooded NYC massively, but it's still extremely inhabited.
I'm sorry, what?
Sandy, not Katrina. 4 to 8 foot flood levels in NYC
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Sandy_in_New_York
EDIT
Oh yeah, and hurricane Irene just a few years before that too
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Irene_in_New_York
I'm sure that's comforting to the economically underserved that have barriers to contingency plans.