this post was submitted on 29 May 2024
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As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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‘Unbearable’ heat in Delhi is testing limits of human survival (wapo.st)
submitted 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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Note that there are two common "wet bulb" temperatures used in discussion:

  • Wet Bulb Globe Temperature - this tells you that physical activity (including work) in unshaded locations can kill healthy adults and is used in this article
  • Wet Bulb Temperature - this tells you whether it is hot enough to kill the bulk of the population for just sitting still in the shade with access to plenty of water

A Washington Post analysis found that the wet-bulb globe temperature, which measures the amount of heat stress on the human body, reached 97 degrees to 100 degrees (36 to 38 Celsius) in Delhi on Tuesday. That is higher than the 89.6 Fahrenheit (32 Celsius) threshold that researchers have identified as posing a risk to human survival if such heat is prolonged. The wet-bulb globe temperature is based on a combination of factors including temperature, humidity, wind and clouds, and was calculated by The Post using data from a nearby weather station.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 5 months ago

It hasn't happened this time, but all it takes is a heat dome to persist for a few hours or days with 10-20% higher humidity &/or temp and BAM... thousands to millions dead. Once evaporative cooling reverses and you start absorbing heat from the atmosphere it's only a matter of time. So maybe the next El Nino, or the one after; possibly in between, but less likely.

The embellishment with the ministry for the future is the first wet bulb event was extreme, when in reality they're most likely to start smaller and less intense — only killing thousands — not reaching those types of extremes until we're at 2-3c (in decades). The resilience of the bioshpere, and slow crawl of climate change, is what is ultimately leading to our undoing.