454
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 26 May 2024
454 points (97.7% liked)
politics
18881 readers
4041 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Well said.
The number of users here who think far left protest non-votes matter more in this election than centrists/moderates and disillusioned conservative Republicans is bordering on comical.
This election will come down to the usual suspects lately:
Moderates in PA, MI, WI, GA, NV, and AZ.
Personally, I'm predicting overall lower turnout than 2020 and it's more a matter of which candidate motivates their centrist voters from 4 years ago in these locations to actually get out and vote again.
Given their track records, it is my prediction that centrist Biden voters from 2020 will be more likely to stay loyal and motivated than centrist Trump voters from the same time frame...who now have his trials as well as the Jan. 6th debacle, weighing on their minds. Further, I feel like the trump campaign has greater enthusiasm but among a smaller core, whereas the Biden camp has lukewarm enthusiasm among a broader set...and since a lukewarm vote has as much impact as a zealous one, the calculus favors Biden in that regard.
So both guys get fewer votes overall than they did 4 years ago...but the amount that each one loses (and where) is what decides things. And if that's how it plays out, I think the map is going to look very similar to the last go-round. I think Biden is least safe in AZ (depending on how the conversation about the border plays out) and GA (which is just the battleground in the country right now, it seems). I think he's safest in Michigan, and the remaining states of WI and PA I'd say lean Biden but are certainly in play. I'm not as familiar with Wisconsin, but Pennsylvania has handed Democrats more and more wins since the last time, most importantly in the midterms, when Pennsylvanians gave Democrats the majority in the state house in 2022 for the first time in ages.
So, barring any major shakeup in the campaigns, I feel like just looking at the Xs and Os, every state votes the way it did 4 years ago, except MAYBE the states Biden flipped. Of those, I feel Michigan and Pennsylvania stay blue.
If those two predictions are correct, Biden can even lose Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, and still end up with 270 electoral votes to Trump's 268, and still narrowly win. While I'd like a fatter margin, I feel it's a wholly reasonable scenario that Biden carries every state Clinton did in 2016, plus two of the 5 battleground states he picked up in 2020.