Probably the same chance for 2024 with el nino
this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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2025 isn't looking that great either.
The history of temperature rise has not been monotonic. So I'd expect a period of a few years where we don't set a new record.
Yes but that doesn't mean we've reached the current peak yet.
Exactly, don't forget that climate change goes extreme in both directions, so we may very well face the coldest year on record too.
Basically no chance of that happening. Temperatures are rising, just with a bit of noise:
Monotonic would mean that each year is strictly warmer than the last one, but the noise is big enough that we sometimes get a few slightly less warm years before the next record.
The bigger picture looks like this:
The scary thing about your first graph is that it is missing the current year, where the line will precisely hit the top right corner.
I feel like not enough people realize how unprecedented this year was. It took 40 years of global warming to get from +0.3 to +0.9 and now we're making an equally big jump in 1 year.
But the good news is that it'll be the coolest year for the foreseeable future 🙂
maybe ever again.
Not how it works actually.
Okay, within the bounds of your lifetime.
Also np.
I found the optimist!
…so far.
When I see this headline, I always have to try to resist the urge to be like "no shit it's the hottest year on record, it'a going to keep being the hottest year on record cause the planet is getting hotter on average, and we know exactly why that is"
For anyone who doesn't have one. I can highly recommend those dumb looking straw hats that old people wear at the beach and sporting events. Works real good at keeping you cool. Just uh, don't expect to be fashionable while wearing it lol
Counterpoint: Nathan Lane in The Birdcage was fabulous in his floppy hat.
"Actually it was perfect, I just never realized John Wayne walked that way"
Later: Well technically the average temperature of 2023 was actually pretty moderate, but that's only because the entire world was wrapped in a brutal ice age beginning in December.
Meanwhile in the UK, still waiting for the summer. :(
didn't it hit 32 for like a week straight in September
We do live on an island directly on the middle of two weather fronts.
It’s either cold air from up north or warm air from the med that wins. Usually the cold wins unfortunately.