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Now that we have final numbers. It appears that Harris had all the white & black support she needed for an EC victory. But Trump outright flipping Latino men and making huge gains with Latino women seems to have made all the difference.
What do you think?
First image is 2024, second is 2020.
To actually answer the post title you'd have to go state by state in the swing states to see if she could flip enough of them to make a difference. I suspect the bigger problem is still lack of turnout rather than any specific demographic.
Only 4% of Latino men shifted. That chart says Latino men were 5% of the total vote. Harris needed more than another .02%
The 1st and 2nd columns swap between the elections.
It is also crazy that I lived long enough to see more Latino men vote Republican than white women 😂
Do some rough math say there are 200,000,000 total eligible voters.
2024 would have 12,000,000 male Latino voters 2020 would have 10,000,000 based on the 3rd column
Even if 100% went left to right at most you have a 12M shift.
That shift though in absolute numbers was far less than that though based on the R/D split, so not a tremendous impact over all.
There was just a lot less people showing up over all for any reason.
I prefer to blame stupid racist people instead of ethnic groups.
I don’t think this is what you intended OP but we should be careful not to blame voters here. Trump and his enablers are to blame for what he does, not voters.
That said, this is interesting. The shift to Trump among most communities was tiny, which could explain why most people were so surprised by this outcome. But why did Latinos shift to the right so much? That’s what I’d like to know.
The shift in the other category was also huge. Are those mostly Asian voters?
I’m not blaming anyone, I’m just pointing out the actual data and asking how & why? For example,
White turnout increased this election, but trump lost some white men & women support again like he did in 2020. And it appears Harris did bettter with white women than Obama, Hillary or Biden. The white vote didn’t change that much.
Black turnout was slightly down, and Trump was able to make a small 2% gain from black men, which isn’t much considering they made up 5% of the electorate this election.
As for the “other” demo. It’s every other ethnicity, but none of them are really big enough to have really big impact unless a specific state has a very large percentage of them and they all go overwhelmingly one way.
So I’m just saying, the only big outlier I see is the Latino vote. Which shifted HUGE for trump, and it appears that’s what won him the election. And I’m asking is that true? And if so, why? Compared to other demos.