this post was submitted on 19 Oct 2024
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politics

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[–] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.

I think it’s funny posts like this get downvoted when it’s just polls and statistics.

I hope it will get upvoted so more people see it and get inspired to vote!

[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Didn’t 538 inaccurately call the past 2 elections? Either way- vote like polls don’t exist!

[–] [email protected] 27 points 1 week ago (1 children)

They don't call elections. They tell you the odds.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago

TBF, that would have been when Nate Silver was running the show. But he left and 538 is using a new, untested model now.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 week ago
[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 week ago

It must of been all the swaying to Ave Maria that put him over the top. That or the jerking off of ghosts to ymca.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 week ago

Well I am just lookin at these early vote ballot requests and I am hoping people just vote

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

[–] [email protected] -5 points 1 week ago

FivethirtyEight - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)Information for FivethirtyEight:

MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: High - United States of America
Wikipedia about this source

Search topics on Ground.Newshttps://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
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