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maybe 20-40k votes across GA, NC, FL?
That's with a gratuitous 10% conversion rate. Real rates are typically sub 1%. 3% would be phenomenal.
10k however is plenty depending on where in a state like NC or GA
I would imagine that they're all over, right? Her demographic is more age based (my assumption) so they aren't centralized anywhere.
I think OP's point is that they are important swing states.
OK, i read it as in what parts of those states they were living.
What are you thinking of when you say “conversion rate”? Like, is the top of your funnel people who saw the endorsement, I guess? If so, I agree, 1% of those converting into voters seems like a reasonable expectation.
That's exactly right. Top of funnel to bottom of funnel conversion.
I'm basing my metrics on what I've personally seen trying to get people to convert in fundraising for leftist political causes. Depending on the mission, messaging, we had some hits. But generally, less that one percent. Getting some one to give you their money isn't that different than asking them to sign up to vote. It's pretty onerous of they haven't done it before. You also have to hit them multiple times with the same message, from different sides, to get them to do something like show up in person.
I'm not able to say where I came up with the gratuitous 10%, but I'd like to pretend Taylor has ⭐ ✨ power over the Swifties. However, reality is you gotta stay on people with involvement and repeated messaging, reminders, deep engagement to keep them "activated". I'm not sure a one and done from Taylor does that. But I'd rather enjoy a nice fantasy that she's able to grow the electorate a smidge in a few key states. that's far more fun.
Some people forgot that political elections are a popularity contest when most of the constituents stop paying attention to policy and voting history, and politicians are usually pretty low on the popularity scale compared to musicians, actors, sports athletes, etc.