Don't trust polls.
There's always an element of society who pretend they don't know who they're voting for yet. They're voting for bad things, they know they're bad, and they are embarrassed to tell pollsters.
Vote.
this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2024
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Don’t trust polls.
High quality pollings (Gallup, Ipsos, various university polling groups) are consistently reliable within the margin of error. There's no point in being afraid or dismissive of them.
There’s always an element of society who pretend they don’t know who they’re voting for yet. They’re voting for bad things
There are plenty of people who are disinterested or uninformed. They aren't naturally malicious simply because they don't religiously follow political news. Lots of them don't even know if they're going to vote until early voting starts, and even then only vote as part of their family or social group rather than because they have an emotional attachment to one of the parties.
The regional nature of voting tends to mean that if you're too shy to express your views, you aren't in the majority anyway. Its the guy who answers the phone in a MAGA hat and shouts "Hell yeah I'm voting fer Trump!" that you have to worry about, not the one who is too shy to whisper support for RFK Jr down the line.
don't trust polls.
This isn't telling you to not be confident or to be scared, this is telling you to not assume victory is assured. Vote regardless of polling. Polling can be accurate or not. If the polling is accurate, and a majority would vote for A, but A is so far ahead of B that A-voters sit out the race, B can still win if enough voters choose to stay home.
this is telling you to not assume victory is assured
Who looks at a 50/48 polling split and thinks victory is assured? That's still within the margin of error and it doesn't even include battleground swings.
But if it was 60/40? Yeah, I'd feel pretty assured. You'd be a fool not to.
If the polling is accurate, and a majority would vote for A, but A is so far ahead of B that A-voters sit out the race
People keep talking about this like it ever actually happens? Name one candidate that lost an election because the polling was too favorable.
It's only fake news when it goes against their agenda. Otherwise, it's bigly accurate.
If Trump were still leading, we'd hear how its going to be a Red Wave and he's going to do 10-pts better than advertised.
If he's losing, its cause he's secretly winning.
If he's losing bad, its cause there's a vast deep state conspiracy and don't trust the elections its just like Vuvuzela.