One man's slow realization that he actually just got extremely lucky.
this post was submitted on 03 Sep 2023
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i mean...didn't he figure out that "it's possible that we are in a completely fraudulent system" like...15 years ago?
"i know the odds are on the house -- but i got a good feeling about this, now that i've established the odds aren't the only thing that's on their side but they're genuinely fraudulent as well. got a good feeling about this next hand."
He's like many others who scream that the market is about to crash.
There are far more people who want to keep the game of musical chairs going then for the record to skip, causing a panic.
Timing is everything. It's also very hard, especially when the game is rigged.
Exactly. His macro analysis is spot on, but he is fighting the Fed.
Will he run out of margin before the Fed runs out of credibility and the dollar collapses? Impossible to know.
But the dollar collapses may be sooner than we think.
trying to time the market is errand fool. Money management is everything IMO. If you only lose 5% when you lose and win 20% when you win, you'll end up on top... eventually
Good luck determining the chances on those, especially with shorting which is entirely timing-dependent. If you only lose 5% but it's 99% of the time and you win 20% but it's 1% of the time, you still lose.
Ooof. Big ouchies.
Although I can't say my F calls are doing great.