No real peace is on the table with Putin still in power. They've invaded Ukraine twice this decade and will only do it harder next time.
this post was submitted on 26 Jul 2024
68 points (94.7% liked)
Ukraine
8237 readers
402 users here now
News and discussion related to Ukraine
*Sympathy for enemy combatants is prohibited.
*No content depicting extreme violence or gore.
*Posts containing combat footage should include [Combat] in title
*Combat videos containing any footage of a visible human must be flagged NSFW
Donate to support Ukraine's Defense
Donate to support Humanitarian Aid
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
To qoute a famous American: "Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me... you can't get fooled again."
How dysfunctional is this reality that I kinda miss W?
It's dysfunctional because the us electorate, the media, and the politicians all decided together that an election should look and work like a superbowl instead of a free market of policies with negotiation and team work.
Divided we fall.
It's because he was actually reasonably competent, despite tripping over his own tounge every so often.
I think it's more that he is the last Republican candidate that at least seemed to have this country's best interest at heart.
He was even wrong about that, lmfao
Maybe russia should withdraw from ukraine and negotiate from moscow instead
Get the fuck out of Ukraine. There, that's your details.
While this isn't likely to amount to anything, it is interesting to see Russia moving towards a negotiated end to the invasion. This war seems unlikely to end with a total loss for Russia, leaving two likely outcomes:
- War fatigue takes over and Russia finally withdraws. Similar to how the Soviet-Afghan War ended. The downside of this is that, Russia may well be willing to keep fighting for a decade or longer. This is going to result in even more death and destruction in Ukraine. Though, this may also be the only path which results in a Ukraine which is again whole and free of Russian influence.
- A negotiated cease-fire. This could take on a lot of forms. Everything from Russia fucking off to Ukraine as a puppet state. Though neither of those extremes seems likely at this point. And, at this point, I suspect both sides of the negotiation have red lines in their positions which are beyond the red lines of the other side. For example, Ukraine's position likely includes the return of all occupied territory in Eastern Ukraine. And any negotiated settlement which leaves those regions under Russian control is completely unacceptable. By contrast, Russia may consider any negotiated settlement that removes the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts from their control as completely unacceptable. The end result is that, no matter how much anyone talks about peace, neither side is willing to give up enough that the other side won't respond with a flat out, "no".
The question this sort of announcement brings up is: are Russia's red lines moving? While they may still be in the unacceptable region for Ukraine's negotiating position, it may signal that they are starting to shift. Maybe losing control of the Donetsk Oblast is no longer actually a red line and they would be willing to give up on that area entirely. Sure, that still leaves them well past the "complete territorial integrity" goal of Ukraine. But, it may also be that Ukraine's own red lines no longer extend quite as far in that direction as they used to.
And yes, morally, this is all kinda shit. The truly moral thing is for Russia to fuck right off and Putin to end up taking a swan dive from a fifth story window. But, ending wars often results in a lot of abandoned morals.
The downside of this is that, Russia may well be willing to keep fighting for a decade or longer.
Equipment estimates show that Russia may have 2 years worth of equipment left at best. Unless China starts supplying them with tanks and APCs Russian soldiers will only be armed with rocks and sticks.
People have been making those predictions ever since the war started, I'll believe it when I see it.
The invasion consisted of T-80, T-90, T-72 tanks. Today Russia is fielding T-55 and T-62 tanks. Are you not seeing that?
I've also seen people say they'll be out of equipment in months to years.
Lend/lease a squadron of A10s and finish them off.
Hard to imagine a peace deal that doesn't end with Russian control over most of its captured Ukrainian territory.
Won't need to imagine it. It will be real one day soon enough. Ukraine has the will and support for it.
Leave and hang putin or toss him out a window...there talks completed.
my grains of salt are far to precious for such known liars and bad faith actors.
we are open to achieving our goals through negotiations
Nothing new to see here.
🙄
In a negotiation both parties start with a maximalist position and they have to reach an agreement. So Russia will start with "everything we control is ours" and Ukraine will start with "fuck off and give us Putin's head". But that's not strange. Strange would be both parties agreeing before starting.