Canada

It's amazing to me how quickly we forgot that carbon pricing was a conservative policy proposal. It was literally a concession the Liberals made to the Progressive Conservatives in the early days of planning to address "global warming" back in the days of the Kyoto Accord. PC's wanted market solutions instead of regulatory heavy handedness to shape Canada's way forward. LPC preferred cap and trade, but couldn't get it passed, so they agreed to support carbon pricing because it was better than nothing.

Fast forward to today and suddenly carbon pricing is Liberal policy and ignore/deny is the CPC strategy.

Carbon pricing in Canada is revenue neutral and, because both industry and consumers pay into it but only consumers get the refund, virtually everyone gets back more than they put in. But almost no one knows that and people don’t like seeing higher numbers at the pump.

Where have they been on messaging about this? Conservatives have been hammering away and Liberals have been silent. I think when people see how the policy works, there’s a lot to like.

This is the best summary I could come up with:

In Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals have dominated to different degrees in the past three elections, the government's major climate policy plank—carbon pricing—is a bust.

Constituents told ministers from this region that homeownership is out of reach, or if they own a home, the burden of their mortgage is becoming unbearable.

The lead for the Tories is not insurmountable, but widening, and the top issue for Canadians surveyed is the cost of living—the latter informing the former.

But there is an acute sense among senior staffers and some ministers that once a wave or a desire for change takes hold, there is not much you can do to stop it.

They don't believe they're at that critical nexus yet, but there is debate about how long a runway they have to counter a narrative that cemented over the summer; or in other words—to meet the moment.

That too isn't a surprise—show me a government that wants to make a big announcement during the dying days of summer and I've got a shiny penny to sell you.

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