this post was submitted on 20 Apr 2024
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  • Special envoy Li Hui’s latest mission to Europe was met with scepticism, and could be seen as ‘signalling’ to the Global South
  • Beijing has yet to confirm if it will attend the June peace summit in Switzerland but continues to lobby for Moscow to take part

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appeared to have secured Chinese support for the Ukraine peace summit when he was in Beijing this week, though it is still not clear if Xi Jinping will attend.

China is among more than 100 nations invited to Switzerland for the conference in June to discuss how to end the war, which has dragged on for more than two years.

While China has yet to confirm its attendance, it has been pushing for Russia to take part, with special envoy Li Hui lobbying in European capitals last month.

Observers say Li’s trip achieved little, but that China – aiming to be a peace broker – has seen an opportunity to push for direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, with the Swiss summit the first step. ⠀

Düben said China’s efforts in Europe could also be seen as “signalling” to the Global South that it is a responsible power.

“The most cynical interpretation might be, China just wants to be seen as a peacemaker … when the US is perceived by more people around the world as not so much of a responsible actor in the context of what’s happening in Gaza,” he said.

China has sought to expand its influence in the Global South amid an intensifying rivalry with the United States.

It also wants to be a global peacemaker, brokering a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran last year and calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. The US is meanwhile under pressure over the military funding and support it provides to Israel. ⠀

Back in Beijing, Li said the “large gap” between the involved parties had made mediation difficult, but they had agreed that the conflict would ultimately be resolved through peace talks.

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (3 children)

Any peace deal that doesn't involve Russia leaving behind all Ukrainian territory rewards Putin's Russia for their invasion. IMO Russia should have to at least pull back to the borders that existed before the 2022 offensive. Of course I'm not in a position to make decisions if it's a bitter pill that must be taken, but real gains for Russia will be proof that aggression worked.

Also, peace doesn't need a specific broker. If an international effort including China, or even led by them, can broker a good deal then so be it. Maybe China's relationship with Russia makes talks more likely to be productive. I can't think of an explanation as to why a US-led deal with the same terms would be inherently better (that isn't just nationalism/pride and much less important than halting war).

[–] [email protected] 5 points 8 months ago (1 children)

It should be the 2013 borders. Before the invasion of Crimea. Russia agreed not to invade Ukraine, in exchange for Ukraine giving Russia it's nuclear weapons. If Russia doesn't give everything back, then it can't be trusted to make any deal with any nation. Including peace deals.

Any agreement needs Ukraine to get all it's territory back, and allow them to join NATO. Russia can't be trusted. But they won't challenge NATO directly. Europe also needs to take defence more seriously. Only eastern Europe is really taking the Russian threat seriously. Western Europe was fooled into thinking they won the cold war. Russia and China never saw it as over.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 8 months ago

Given that this is a fantasy position, it sounds like you just don't want to engage with reality.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 8 months ago

Düben said China’s efforts in Europe could also be seen as “signalling” to the Global South that it is a responsible power.

I think this is an important part. The US and Europe aren't exactly glowingly popular amongst nations of the global south due to their history of imperialism and intervention. I foresee a lot of these countries turning to China for guidance as they have less baggage.

[–] [email protected] -5 points 8 months ago

I'm always hopeful, but at this point, I seriously doubt Russia's sincerity. Past ceasefire agreements, for example, were broken by Russian attacks, usually within hours of the agreement taking effect.