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Toyota’s chairman doubles down on his electric car skepticism, forecasting that EV adoption will peak at just 30% (fortune.com)

submitted 9 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Akio Toyoda, Toyota Motor’s chairman, has never been a huge fan of battery electric vehicles. Last October, as global sales of EVs started to slow down amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Toyoda crowed that people are “finally seeing reality” on EVs. Now, the auto executive is doubling down on his bearish forecast, boldly predicting that just three in 10 cars on the road will be powered by a battery.

…

“The enemy is CO2,” Toyoda said, proposing a “multi-pathway approach” that doesn’t rely on any one type of vehicle. “Customers, not regulations or politics” should make the decision on what path to rely on, he said.

The auto executive estimated that around a billion people still live in areas without electricity, which limits the appeal of a battery electric vehicle. Toyoda estimated that fully electric cars will only capture 30% of the market, with the remainder taken up by hybrids or vehicles that use hydrogen technology.

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[–] [email protected] 85 points 9 months ago (2 children)

At this point the dude is just grasping for anything that will to justify the stupid business decisions that he’s made. 30% is a shit load, and something a sane business person would be excited about trying to capture.

Before nepotism appointed him to CEO, the company launched the Prius. That thing was exciting and innovative when it came out.

Under his leadership the Prius brand became a synonym for boredom, he relinquished Toyota’s electric powertrain lead to other manufacturers, and the brand produced a lot of uninspired vehicles in general.

This guy was at the helm during the years of Toyota’s decline. Forgive me if I don’t pay any attention to him.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (26 children)

Prius is still rocking all over the place and it says once again in his statement right here the guy likes hybrids. There's currently lots of hybrids out and about, and I agree with the guy. At least until battery tech changes. A hybrid battery is a few grand to replace and there's no range anxiety or worrying about plugging in anywhere. An EV with a decent range is $10,000 to $25,000 to replace an 1,100 lb battery in and it's expensive and troublesome if you don't live at a place where you can plug in at home in your garage.

As to prius being boring....I don't even know what you're talking about. What do you want it to do? They're still really popular and have been going for over 20 years with several different models and some that can be plugged in. How is it supposed to be exciting?

Also, toyota achieved a couple years ago something it had never done before. Top GM in sales in the US to get the number one spot. So with their "boring cars and their crappy ceo" they seem to be doing great.

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 months ago

It's his hand to play. If he's wrong, he's wrong and will find out.

[–] [email protected] 47 points 9 months ago (1 children)

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[–] [email protected] 27 points 9 months ago (2 children)

What data is being used to make this statement?

[–] [email protected] 62 points 9 months ago

I guess the data that says they spent too much money on hydrogen tech that is now unlikely to pay off.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Even if there’s no data to back it, isn’t 30% a lot?? I know plenty of markets where if you tell one of the leaders they could capture 30% of they’d be more than happy to spend billions in R&D. So just at face value the man is smoking some copium hard.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 9 months ago

There’s no way one company would be able to capture the entirety of that market, at best it would be like 20 brands splitting the 30% and that’s not an appealing prospect.

Really though the Toyota clan is saying this because they spent a shit ton on hydrogen vehicle tech that they want to catch on rather than electric battery tech that they neglected

[–] [email protected] 22 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills - wasn't Toyota all up in the news recently about its new battery technology that was going to revolutionize EVs? Why yes, yes it was.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I think they're just putting out shit trying to create FUD so people are less likely to buy EVs.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Bingo, they bet on the wrong horse, and now they try to use their market share to FUD EV's

[–] [email protected] 14 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (2 children)

He's clearly aware of the "magic gas" cheat that allows infinite additional fossil fuel to be harvested from the map.

Edit: Or he's confident that Hydrogen will pick up the slack.

Hindenburg in flames

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

He's still pissed their early collaboration with Tesla yielded nothing but a new competitor.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-20-years-on-EV-leader-s-rise-sparked-by-Toyota-partnership

[–] [email protected] 10 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I mean okay...I guess I'm wondering what he thinks that some how the billion people who live in areas without electricity is going to afford a new hybrid or even more expensive hydrogen vehicle that has even less infrastructure than EV's.

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 9 months ago (2 children)

I haven't bought an EV (or any other car) because I'm waiting for a car manufacturer to make the car I want in a plug in variant of some kind (also less telematics). Who doesn't want to be their own gas station--self sufficient with Solar, anyone?

Get your shit together, car industry. Especially you Toyota.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 9 months ago

You’re gonna be waiting a looong time.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 9 months ago

Booooooooooooooooooooo

[–] [email protected] 3 points 9 months ago

But don't worry, they're "too big to fail". They'll get bailout after bailout until they can stand on their own again after a transition made far more painful by their foot dragging. So in the end it's the Japanese tax payer that will foot the bill.

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