Maybe, but I think that the branding of the "fediverse" + difficulty of use will make it unlikely to surpass reddit or any other alternatives. It will almost certainly still be around for years to come, but I doubt it'll be much more than niche, despite me hoping for the contrary.
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I sure as hell hope so. After everything that's happened over at Reddit I don't feel like going back. I'm not one to come back to an abusive relationship ya know? So like yeah I hope Lemmy lasts it seems to hold up well against the Sands of time at the very least, if it lasts as long as Reddit and things go south instead of having to jump ship, you can just migrate servers. Plus, at least at this point in time, there have been no red flags, all we need is for the userbase to participate.
Edit: Typo
While I plan on using this platform for the forseeable future - I don't have too high hopes.
I think it will probably go the way Mastodon is going. A few weeks of being "hot", then dropping off until it's pretty much business as usual, as it was before being the hot new thing. Don't get me wrong, I want Lemmy to succeed and replace reddit, but I wouldn't bet money on it.
I’ll certainly be staying. I like it here so far!
It won't die in "a few weeks", simply because the likelihood of everybody abandoning ship in such a short timeframe is pretty much zero.
It will almost certainly become irrelevant after some years (we just don't know how many) because almost nothing remains relevant on the Net for more than a decade or two, though even "irrelevant" things still attract a few people so they rarelly "die".
Edit: Also and as a side note, I've actually been questioning just how many people needs to be around here for it to be a good place to be in. I don't think the "millions" of people of Reddit actually added to it and suspect that a few tens of thousand of users are enough for the place to feel interesting to be in and participate in, except perhaps in very obscure and niche subjects were you do need millions of people around for there to be a handful that are interested in such subjects.
It all depends on us. I hope for more servers that FEDERATE - I'm trying hard to cut /r/ out of my life... if we do that, lemmy and the fediverse can live on... Will you?
pAULIE42o
Definitely will stay around, yet, realistically speaking, I don't have much expectations about this endeavor even scratching reddit's monopoly in the next 1 ~ 3 years (I hope I'm mistaken), who knows what will happen in 10 or 20
The Fediverse will live on as long as two people want to share content. Users ebb like waves on the shore, and the sea level is rising.
I didn't have Twitter, but moved back into the Fediverse once that imploded. I had another account years ago but it was too quiet. Mastodon's growth has been crazy to watch. I suspect Lemmy will be an echo of that, maybe this time or at some point in the future. It's no matter, though. The Fediverse is slow social media, which is a good thing.
It existed for years before reddit had its issue.
On the other side of the fediverse that's more like Twitter, Elon Musk pissed a bunch of people off and we've seen a few waves of new users. How it has worked is there's an inrush of people, some people go "Wait a minute, this isn't my old platform! I don't like it!" and go back, some people stick around.
Once people start to realize how friggin' cool the fediverse as a whole is, I think a bunch of people stay. Especially realizing that it takes all power away from corporate overlords and gives a lot of power to people who run their own instances.
I think I'll still be here, I've been noticing a decline in Reddit for a long time and this API stuff is just the excuse I needed to leave. If enough other people think like me I'll always have a reason to be here.
I intend to be here for the long run, and I don’t think I’m alone in that mentality.
It won't die if we stick around and grow these communities that we've just joined
I don't think Lemmy would die even if Spez gets fired and they write a public apology for the users inconvenience and step back with the API changes....
I for sure am here to stay!
I don't know about you but I'm here to stay. Also, you need to define "die", since lemmy existed long before reddit drama and will be here after their downfall even if users leave it'll continue to exist.
I think it will last, but little Reddit will as well, though possibly in a lesser state as some subs move here or elsewhere
I would like to think this is my new home, but I still have a lot of learning to do about the fediverse. I won't be going back to Reddit and using their garbage app and site, but I also still need to learn how to maneuver this new land before it can be a true alternative for me
We'll have to wait and see but I think this last issue with Reddit has given Lemmy enough of a boost that it will get the required amount of momentum.
It won't be long before a lot of the classic subs are reproduced over here and new users will be able to turn up and slot straight in and carry on doing what they were doing over there all pretty seamlessly.
It would be interesting to know what percentage of the most active posters made the jump as they are likely providing a much higher percentage of the content than the average user. It's those people that will really make a difference.
I also think having Fediverse alternatives to so much corporate social media and how well it cooperates with each other is also key. I am busy moving myself over to these services and I am liking what I see. It will always occupy a layer under the corporate one but that might be a good thing - like them act as the bullet magnet and let us just get in with things.
Im new here on Lemmy. So far it seems a little confusing coming from Reddit. But I really hope it lasts. From what I can tell there is a good community here.
Either way I'm done with reddit.
It all depends on if Reddit continues to make decisions with disastrous optics. If this is the one and only user bump Lemmy will get off the back of Reddit, I can see it dying down in the future, but if there's more I think it'll take flight and eventually start snowballing on its own merits. I'm not sure if it'll ever be mainstream, but it'll persist - as it was before all this.
Will definitely loose some users because of small things that come with using something like this. At the end of the day, people are attached and will go back to reddit. That doesn't mean though, that there won't still be a bunch of people using lemmy.
I'm here to stay, and Reddit was my only social media before. But was on that site so many years and it did get shitter over time. Lemmy isn't overrun yet, it's nice.
I’ll be here. I like that it takes a little more effort, it’s a little cumbersome or gatekeepy, but it also seems to keep the vibe more like the early internet and less like whatever it has currently turned into.
It reminds me of crypto spaces but without the incentive and monetization of action that seems to lead to a scammy and disingenuous feel to the content.
I don't think Lemmy will ever get the mainstream attention that reddit has to get big celebrity AMAs, but that may be a good thing, if it stays a genuine place like it is currently, people will come.
I'm leaning on content I've seen thus far but- If this becomes the place where content holds people, they will stay. To replace -the other site- Lemmy needs to be the place the general internet comes to for information and community questions. In this early stage people need to cement "this is where to come for answers" with regards to....everything. eli5, me-irl and even ask-reddit needs to come here. We joke about how Listicles hijack Reddit content but that's a sign of healthy creation at work. It gets the average non-reddit user conscious of the product and to come there when they have a question.
What needs to happen (if lemmy wants to replace Reddit) is lemmy needs that. It needs to enter the public conscience as an information nexus. To what degree is up for debate of each Instances admin. Beehaw straight said "nope"
Reddit already killed the big AMAs anyway, but I get what you're saying.
I'm staying
Lemmy will definetly last! I hope so at least. it might never go mainstream, but that a good thing.
It's really up to us to keep it going. I think it will make it.
Seeing a post like this with over 100 comments makes me think that it's going to last, but scrolling down and seeing 25+ posts in a row with zero comments concerns me. It could be a federation/Jerboa/other issue though, I'm still not 100% on everything works and connects, plus I imagine the sudden rapid growth is hurting it for now but that should settle eventually
i will be staying
I think it will last. Soon there will be more apps and some patches for bugs, that will make it an even nicer place to keep sharing thoughts and info.